Houston Open Picks 2024: Outright Bets for Will Zalatoris & More

The PGA Tour season continues this week with the Houston Open 2024 hosted by Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas.

Our golf betting experts have already peppered the outright betting board at open on Monday with Houston Open Picks, and they have bets for three different golfers ready.

Find our Houston Open Picks for 2024 below.

Houston Open Picks 2024

Spencer Aguiar: Max Greyserman +25000 (FanDuel)

I hope this answer doesn't come off the wrong way, but this is genuinely one of the worst outright betting boards I have ever seen.

The natural answer everyone would expect me to say is that Scottie Scheffler getting priced at +300 makes this complicated because he is going to win and cost upside to all other wagers. While there is some truth to the latter part of that statement, the more significant concern stems from the fact that books didn't enhance the odds for everyone else further down the board to allow for this price on Scheffler to stand where it has this week.

Markets with Scheffler as a bettable commodity have way too much hold percentage, and markets without Scheffler have decided to move things too far in the other direction, once again creating too much hold percentage — creating truly horrible pricing.

Because of those factors, I will take my shots further down the board this week on mostly 100-1 longshot wagers. I do think Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris and Tony Finau are the most likely combination of names to eclipse Scheffler if someone ends this current run. Still, exposure adds up quickly when grasping at straws near the top.

My model liked Max Greyserman because he combined approach play, the potential to score on these holes and overall grades for this challenging venue. In theory, options like Greyserman, Jacob Bridgeman, Andrew Novak, Nate Lashley and Doug Ghim are likely better candidates to be wagered on as a top-20 bet.

However, the only value I could find anywhere on this sheet stemmed at the bottom because those were the names that experienced a marginal price increase.

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Matt Gannon: Will Zalatoris +2000 (DraftKings)

Ahead of the season, I was eying up two spots for Will Zalatoris hoping he would heal up from injury. The first spot was Bay Hill, where he contended and ended up finishing in a tie for fourth. The next spot I thought to deploy him was this week at Memorial Park.

This host course of the 2024 Houston Open is no slouch. Not only do golfers need to play from the fairway, but they need to be long off the tee while doing so. Memorial Park will do a great job separating the best total drivers from the field. If golfers have the ability to gain multiple strokes off the tee, they will really have a leg up on a course like this.

Outside of the missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, Zalatoris has been playing amazing golf, and I am not worried about that poor weak. TPC Sawgrass is an extremely volatile course, and Memorial Park is a far better course for him.

We cannot forget that Zalatoris is a Texas guy and knows how to get it done in these conditions. He is an above average total driver and hits his long and mid irons tremendously well. He is ready to get back in the winner's circle again, so let's ride with Willy Z.

Tony Sartori: Wyndham Clark +1400 (bet365)

In this field, it is Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark and then everyone else. With all due respect to the likes of Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau and Sahith Theegala, those three guys trail the top two by a solid margin, and then the field really nosedives after that.

Between Scheffler and Clark, I’m simply not backing a golfer who is 3-1. This is still the PGA Tour, and as we just saw at the Valspar Championship, any golfer can win any given week. On top of that, Scheffler has not won in 19 of his past 22 tournaments. Clark possesses the same amount of wins over that same stretch.

The Oregon Duck profiles well for Memorial Park Golf Course, given that Clark ranks 11th on Tour in Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%) this season. While hitting greens is an obvious key for success at any venue, this need to land safely on the approach is amplified at Memorial considering that each of the top three finishers here last season ranked seventh or higher among the field in GIR%, the only statistic in which such a trend occurred.

Finally, Clark had some success here last season with a T16 finish, and considering his recent form and the level of competition he will face this week, I could see him making the jump and taking down Scheffler after finishing right behind Scheffler in each of their last two starts.