Perry’s Guide to the Masters Betting Favorites: The Big-Name Players Who Have My Attention
Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tommy Fleetwood
- The betting favorites for the 2019 Masters include Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth.
- Joshua Perry analyzes the top of the Masters board to see if there's any betting value before the tournament gets underway on Thursday.
For months leading into The Masters, the top of the betting board was in flux.
We saw moments where Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Dustin Johnson held the distinction of being the favorite. But it will be Rory McIlroy, who has finished in the top-six of every stroke play event in 2019, atop the board at 7-1 as we head into Augusta.
McIlroy has been incredibly consistent this year and finally found the winner’s circle with a marquee victory at The Players last month.
There are about a half dozen players right on Rory’s tail at the top of the board, all listed below 20-1: Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler are all between 10-1 and 18-1 at most shops.
Looking at the aforementioned, we’d figure that winner would be in that group most years. But the Masters just hasn’t been a favorites tournament since Tiger’s dominant days. Woods’ last win was in 2005 and since then, only three of the 13 winners teed off at under 20-1 (Phil Mickelson twice in 2006 and 2010 and Spieth in 2015).
It’s easy to get caught up in the big names, but this tournament is pretty wide open among about 35 guys and the winners tend to fall closer to that mid-tier between 25-1 and 66-1.
With the talent at in the middle range, I usually end up fading all players at the top because I really don’t see much value with any of them.
If you decide to jump into this range, I think recent form is the most important thing to look at. A player doesn’t necessarily need to have a win coming in, but he definitely needs a few high finishes coming in the past couple months to show he’s close.
Players don’t really show up at Augusta and win out of the blue. There are usually signs leading up to it.
That doesn’t really eliminate any of the big names outside of Spieth, who is probably the worst bet on the board. Books know people will put money on him here because of his history at the Masters. But Spieth’s form has never been anywhere near this bad heading to Augusta.
If you’re wanting to bet one of the favorites, two players stand out the most.