Workday Charity Open Betting Preview: Which Golfers Have the Best Course History at Muirfield Village?
Photo credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Marc Leishman
Yesterday, I wrote about which golf metrics have best predicted success at Muirfield Village, the site of this week’s tournament, the Workday Charity Open in Dublin, Ohio.
As I discussed there, this is an interesting two-week stretch where we’ll have back-to-back tournaments at Muirfield. They’re going to set things up differently across the weeks, and it looks like this first event will play pretty darn easy like we’ve seen the last several weeks.
Because of that fact, I’ll adjust my focus a little more to guys who can score rather than ones who are more consistent: Think birdie/bogey golf vs. par golf. But course fit will still be relevant, and Muirfield should mostly favor ball-strikers rather than the bombers.
Course history will likely be important as well given that we have a ton of data on Muirfield, which has been a regular stop since 1976.
At the bottom of this post, I’ll insert a table with “Course History Ratings,” which basically highlights how well golfers have done here over the past six years.
It incorporates Adjusted Round Score, our proprietary metric at FantasyLabs, and I also account for how many times a golfer has played here in that time frame.
In other words: A golfer playing well once is nice; doing it consistently over the years is more impressive. Likewise, a golfer who consistently underperforms will be penalized more than one who had a bad random year. Ratings are adjusted for the field.
Top Golfers in Muirfield Village Course History Rating
Given what I said about course fit, it’s no surprise to see some of the world’s best ball-strikers at the top of the ratings, including Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Rose.
All of those guys have played Muirfield at least three times over the last six years and have consistently played well. Other guys at the top of the list are Kevin Streelman, Jason Dufner, Emiliano Grillo and others who fit that same trend of ball-striking guys with a bunch of birdie upside.
Leishman holds the top overall rating this week though thanks to his consistently great scores over the last six years. He hasn’t won it in that time frame, but he’s clearly shown the ability to contend:
- 2019: 5th
- 2018: 62nd
- 2017: 15th
- 2016: 11th
- 2015: 5th
- 2014: 37th
Cantlay, last year’s winner, has the best pure score at Muirfield but is just a bit lower given that he’s played this course only three times. Still, it’s hard to ignore the success: He’s been inside the top-five each of the last two years and was 35th the year prior only because of a rough putting outing.
Jordan Spieth is one of the more interesting names in the field, as he usually is most weeks. Specifically at Muirfield, he has very boom-or-bust history, which is essentially how is game is right now. Over the last six years, he’s finished inside the top-20 four times but 57th and a missed cut the other two.
Worst Golfers in Muirfield Village Course History Rating
Speaking of boom-or-bust guys at Muirfield, Justin Thomas, this week’s odds-on favorite to win the event, definitely fits that mold.
- 2019: MC
- 2018: 8th
- 2017: 4th
- 2016: MC
- 2015: MC
- 2014: 37th
JT is coming off a missed cut at the Travelers but didn’t strike the ball too poorly, hitting 75% of his fairways on Thursday and Friday. He was unusually poor putting the ball, and over the last three years he’s had a lot of success on these Muirfield greens, suggesting a potential return to form.
Jon Rahm, up there in odds this week too, probably has the least inspiring history of the top golfers. He’s played Muirfield just once — in 2017, when he missed the cut and was pretty poor with his iron play. That was obviously three years ago, so I’d hesitate to really punish him too much for that single outing.
Some other top golfers with middling to poor history at Muirfield include Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Sung-jae Im, although it’s hard to be too pessimistic about the latter two especially given their age. They’ve obviously improved a ton over the last couple of years and will continue to moving forward.
Enough analysis: See full course history ratings below.
Muirfield Village Course History Ratings
|Golfer||DraftKings Odds||Course History Rating (0 to 10|
|Byeong Hun An||+7000||8.1|
|Charles Howell III||+17500||5.0|
|Si Woo Kim||+22500||5.0|
|Harold Varner III||+7500||4.4|
|Bo Van Pelt||+150000||4.2|
|Ted Potter Jr.||+60000||3.1|
|Davis Love III||+150000||1.5|