Sobel’s Hero World Challenge Matchup Bets: Xander Schauffele vs. Rickie Fowler in Round 4?
- Jason Sobel details two matchup bets that have value in Round 4 of the 2018 Hero World Challenge.
- His picks analyze the following matchups: Xander Schauffele vs. Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose vs. Alex Noren and Patrick Cantlay vs. Bryson DeChambeau
Three players are tied for the Hero World Challenge lead entering the final round, but I’ll be avoiding all of them in my matchups bets for Sunday.
Here are my three favorites from further down the board
Season Record: 3-3-1 (+0.29 units)
Odds via BetOnline
Xander Schauffele (+120) over Rickie Fowler
I picked Schauffele over Thomas for the third round — and he easily beat him by four strokes. I’ll take him in this one for much the same reason. Fowler has been a PGA Tour member for more than a decade and become a household name.
He also owns just one more victory than Schauffele, who’s in the early part of his third season. I think X-man gets some extra motivation against these guys and it wouldn’t surprise me if he matches that third-round 66.
Justin Rose (-160) over Alex Noren
Sometimes you’ve just gotta take the obvious pick. Rose is essentially playing a home game this week, while Noren is playing the last round in what must’ve been an exhausting year competing on two tours. I expect Rose to be fresher and put up perhaps the low round of the day in this one.
Patrick Cantlay (+100) over Bryson DeChambeau
You won’t make much money betting against BDC these days, but this pick is less about fading him and more about expecting positive regression for Cantlay.
Fresh off a third-round 76 that was four strokes worse than anyone in the field, I assume that will remain his outlier score, as he posts something in the neighborhood of 66-67 in the final round. That should be enough to win this matchup.