Updated 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds & Picks: Xander Schauffele Headlines 4 Outright Bets
Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele.
- Jon Rahm is favored at the WGC-Dell Match Play in Austin this week.
- There's value up and down the odds board this week, and Joshua Perry has four players he's betting to win.
- Check out Perry's picks and betting card below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play odds via PointsBet
2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Harold Varner III||+10000|
|Erik Van Rooyen||+12500|
|Min Woo Lee||+20000|
My Korn Ferry favorite, Davis Riley, nearly notched that first win at the Valspar but in the end Sam Burns held him off in the playoff.
He did cash a nice top 20 at +1000 and we’re heading into a spot on the schedule that should fit him. Valero is coming up in two week and he won a Korn Ferry event on that course two years ago.
But for now, the attention shifts to the WGC Match Play event at Austin Country Club.
The format remains the same: 16 groups of four with the winner of each group advancing into the single elimination bracket.
Austin Country Club measures just under 7,100 yards for a par 71. It’s an interesting match-play course that favors a strong off-the-tee game. There are plenty of eagle chances since the par 5s are all reachable, and there’s also a drivable par 4.
We don’t necessarily need a bomber, though, for this Pete Dye design. Having a strong resume on Dye courses can also help, as we saw when Kevin Kisner beat Matt Kuchar for the title back in 2019.
The main defense for this course is the wind. Texas can get breezy this time of year, which puts even more of a premium on ball striking.
Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm enter as co-favorites this week at +1200. Thomas fell a shot shy of the playoff last week while Rahm has been in good ball striking form, but the putter has not cooperated.
This event is so volatile that it’s hard to bet those numbers with anyone. Rahm and Thomas have both made runs in the past in Austin, with Rahm losing to Dustin Johnson in the 2017 final, while Thomas reached the semis the following year.
Viktor Hovland is right behind the pair at +1400. He had a rough time here last year in his debut, losing his first two matches, but he enters with some solid form.
Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler are next up at +1600. Scheffler finished runner-up in his debut last year and is coming in with some great form on the back of a couple wins. I imagine he’ll draw some attention this week.
Morikawa has had a few mediocre weeks entering this event. He got caught in the bad weather draw at the PLAYERS, then barely made the cut and finished 68th last week at the Valspar. Morikawa also didn’t win a match in his first appearance here last season, so he’s just not someone I’ll pay for at this price.
A few guys including Johnson, Daniel Berger and Patrick Cantlay enter in the +2000s, but it’s Xander Schauffele who I’ll be targeting at +2800 on BetFred. The next best number for him is 25-1 at Caesars.
For me, this event comes down to form and the draw. There are no easy matches and anyone can win on any given day, but there are definitely spots that are more preferable than others. Schauffele hit both of those for me this week.
The form is great; outside of the MC at THE PLAYERS, he’s finished top 25 in five of his six starts in 2022. Schauffele played well at Valspar, gaining a little over eight strokes with the ball striking. He also got a draw on the favorable side with Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert and Takumi Kanaya.
Finau just hasn’t put much together in 2022, missing three of his last six cuts without a top-25 in any of those events. Herbert was seventh at Bay Hill, but that’s the only time he’s really popped up in his last four events, recording a 68th and two MCs. Kanaya has been hit and miss overseas. He has a 14th in Saudi Arabia, but missed the cut in both PGA Tour starts this season.
A player of Schauffele’s skill and form should be able to get out of this group.
There are a handful of guys I’ll be playing here, starting with Will Zalatoris at +5000 on PointsBet. Zalatoris has been playing well since the playoff loss at Torrey Pines. The ball striking has been great but the putter hasn’t done much as is kind of the norm with him.
Zalatoris’ draw isn’t ideal with Hovland at the top, but Sepp Straka and Cameron Tringale in the lower half isn’t too bad. Straka is playing well, backing up the Honda Classic win with a ninth at Sawgrass, but neither he or Tringale have played at Austin CC before in this event. Tringale is coming off three rough weeks in Florida, with the best finish being 68th last week.
Next I’ll go to Max Homa at +6000, also on PointsBet. Homa is playing as solid as ever with four straight top 20s. He also played well here last year, winning two of his three matches, losing only to champion Billy Horschel.
Homa’s draw is manageable. He’s matched with Dustin Johnson, who has won here, but his current game has been a bit off from the DJ we’re used to seeing. Matthew Wolff has finished better than 60th just once in his last six starts, while Mackenzie Hughes got out of group play last year but has missed four of his last six cuts entering the event.
My last play here will be Keith Mitchell at +9000 on FanDuel. Mitchell has quietly strung together good results for a few months now. He’s finished inside the top 15 in five of his last seven starts.
Mitchell also has a manageable group. Patrick Cantlay at the top will be tough, but he’s yet to make it out of his group in three tries here and he hasn’t been playing much recently with just a missed cut at Sawgrass in his only start over the past month.
The Florida swing is usually the spot we see Sungjae Im rack up high finishes, but he delivered three mediocre results, with the best being a 20th at the Honda. Seamus Power closes out this group and was riding quite the heater for awhile, but he has cooled down considerably the past few weeks. Power made the cut at Sawgrass on the good side of the draw, but he missed three cuts in a row prior to that.
No longshots for me this week, but I will keep an eye out for a live add situation. A loss in group play isn’t the end and sometimes a guy can go shoot 4- or 5-under and just get beat. But Kisner and Horschel both bounced back from early losses to win here, so it’s worth looking through the scorecards after the first two days to try and find someone who may be undervalued after a tough loss.
The Match Play Card
- Xander Schauffele +2800 (1.18 units)
- Will Zalatoris +5000 (.66 units)
- Max Homa +6000 (.55 units)
- Keith Mitchell +9000 (.37 units)
Total Stake: 2.76 units
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