Updated 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds & Picks: Xander Schauffele Headlines 4 Outright Bets

Updated 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds & Picks: Xander Schauffele Headlines 4 Outright Bets article feature image

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele.

  • Jon Rahm is favored at the WGC-Dell Match Play in Austin this week.
  • There's value up and down the odds board this week, and Joshua Perry has four players he's betting to win.
  • Check out Perry's picks and betting card below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play odds via PointsBet

2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds

Jon Rahm+1400
Justin Thomas+1600
Viktor Hovland+1600
Collin Morikawa+1800
Scottie Scheffler+1800
Dustin Johnson+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2000
Xander Schauffele+2200
Daniel Berger+2800
Jordan Spieth+2800
Bryson DeChambeau+3000
Tyrrell Hatton+3000
Billy Horschel+3300
Brooks Koepka+3300
Joaquin Niemann+3300
Louis Oosthuizen+3300
Matthew Fitzpatrick+3300
Paul Casey+3300
Shane Lowry+3300
Sungjae Im+4000
Abraham Ancer+5000
Adam Scott+5000
Max Homa+5000
Russell Henley+5000
Sergio Garcia+5000
Tommy Fleetwood+5000
Will Zalatoris+5000
Alexander Noren+6000
Brian Harman+6000
Corey Conners+6000
Tony Finau+6000
Jason Kokrak+6600
Kevin Kisner+6600
Patrick Reed+6600
Talor Gooch+6600
Webb Simpson+7000
Maverick McNealy+7000
Bubba Watson+8000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+8000
Keegan Bradley+8000
Keith Mitchell+8000
Marc Leishman+8000
Robert MacIntyre+8000
Si Woo Kim+8000
Tom Hoge+8000
Ian Poulter+8000
Justin Rose+8000
Sepp Straka+8000
Cameron Tringale+10000
Harold Varner III+10000
Seamus Power+10000
Thomas Pieters+10000
Cameron Young+12500
Erik Van Rooyen+12500
Kevin Na+12500
Lee Westwood+12500
Lucas Herbert+12500
Luke List+12500
Mackenzie Hughes+12500
Matthew Wolff+12500
Sebastian Munoz+12500
Min Woo Lee+20000
Richard Bland+20000
Takumi Kanaya+20000
Bet the Match Play at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

My Korn Ferry favorite, Davis Riley, nearly notched that first win at the Valspar but in the end Sam Burns held him off in the playoff.

He did cash a nice top 20 at +1000 and we're heading into a spot on the schedule that should fit him. Valero is coming up in two week and he won a Korn Ferry event on that course two years ago.

But for now, the attention shifts to the WGC Match Play event at Austin Country Club.

The format remains the same: 16 groups of four with the winner of each group advancing into the single elimination bracket.

Bet at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

The Course

Austin Country Club measures just under 7,100 yards for a par 71. It’s an interesting match-play course that favors a strong off-the-tee game. There are plenty of eagle chances since the par 5s are all reachable, and there's also a drivable par 4.

We don’t necessarily need a bomber, though, for this Pete Dye design. Having a strong resume on Dye courses can also help, as we saw when Kevin Kisner beat Matt Kuchar for the title back in 2019.

The main defense for this course is the wind. Texas can get breezy this time of year, which puts even more of a premium on ball striking.

The Favorites

Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm enter as co-favorites this week at +1200. Thomas fell a shot shy of the playoff last week while Rahm has been in good ball striking form, but the putter has not cooperated.

This event is so volatile that it's hard to bet those numbers with anyone. Rahm and Thomas have both made runs in the past in Austin, with Rahm losing to Dustin Johnson in the 2017 final, while Thomas reached the semis the following year.

Viktor Hovland is right behind the pair at +1400. He had a rough time here last year in his debut, losing his first two matches, but he enters with some solid form.

Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler are next up at +1600. Scheffler finished runner-up in his debut last year and is coming in with some great form on the back of a couple wins. I imagine he'll draw some attention this week.

Morikawa has had a few mediocre weeks entering this event. He got caught in the bad weather draw at the PLAYERS, then barely made the cut and finished 68th last week at the Valspar. Morikawa also didn't win a match in his first appearance here last season, so he's just not someone I'll pay for at this price.

A few guys including Johnson, Daniel Berger and Patrick Cantlay enter in the +2000s, but it's Xander Schauffele who I'll be targeting at +2800 on BetFred. The next best number for him is 25-1 at Caesars.

For me, this event comes down to form and the draw. There are no easy matches and anyone can win on any given day, but there are definitely spots that are more preferable than others. Schauffele hit both of those for me this week.

The form is great; outside of the MC at THE PLAYERS, he's finished top 25 in five of his six starts in 2022. Schauffele played well at Valspar, gaining a little over eight strokes with the ball striking. He also got a draw on the favorable side with Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert and Takumi Kanaya.

Finau just hasn't put much together in 2022, missing three of his last six cuts without a top-25 in any of those events. Herbert was seventh at Bay Hill, but that's the only time he's really popped up in his last four events, recording a 68th and two MCs. Kanaya has been hit and miss overseas. He has a 14th in Saudi Arabia, but missed the cut in both PGA Tour starts this season.

A player of Schauffele's skill and form should be able to get out of this group.

Bet Xander Schauffele at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

The Mid-Tier

There are a handful of guys I'll be playing here, starting with Will Zalatoris at +5000 on PointsBet. Zalatoris has been playing well since the playoff loss at Torrey Pines. The ball striking has been great but the putter hasn't done much as is kind of the norm with him.

Zalatoris' draw isn't ideal with Hovland at the top, but Sepp Straka and Cameron Tringale in the lower half isn't too bad. Straka is playing well, backing up the Honda Classic win with a ninth at Sawgrass, but neither he or Tringale have played at Austin CC before in this event. Tringale is coming off three rough weeks in Florida, with the best finish being 68th last week.

Bet Zalatoris & Homa at PointsBet, get $250 FREE.

Next I'll go to Max Homa at +6000, also on PointsBet. Homa is playing as solid as ever with four straight top 20s. He also played well here last year, winning two of his three matches, losing only to champion Billy Horschel.

Homa's draw is manageable. He's matched with Dustin Johnson, who has won here, but his current game has been a bit off from the DJ we're used to seeing. Matthew Wolff has finished better than 60th just once in his last six starts, while Mackenzie Hughes got out of group play last year but has missed four of his last six cuts entering the event.

My last play here will be Keith Mitchell at +9000 on FanDuel. Mitchell has quietly strung together good results for a few months now. He's finished inside the top 15 in five of his last seven starts.

Mitchell also has a manageable group. Patrick Cantlay at the top will be tough, but he's yet to make it out of his group in three tries here and he hasn't been playing much recently with just a missed cut at Sawgrass in his only start over the past month.

The Florida swing is usually the spot we see Sungjae Im rack up high finishes, but he delivered three mediocre results, with the best being a 20th at the Honda. Seamus Power closes out this group and was riding quite the heater for awhile, but he has cooled down considerably the past few weeks. Power made the cut at Sawgrass on the good side of the draw, but he missed three cuts in a row prior to that.

Bet Keith Mitchell at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.


No longshots for me this week, but I will keep an eye out for a live add situation. A loss in group play isn't the end and sometimes a guy can go shoot 4- or 5-under and just get beat. But Kisner and Horschel both bounced back from early losses to win here, so it's worth looking through the scorecards after the first two days to try and find someone who may be undervalued after a tough loss.

The Match Play Card

  • Xander Schauffele +2800 (1.18 units)
  • Will Zalatoris +5000 (.66 units)
  • Max Homa +6000 (.55 units)
  • Keith Mitchell +9000 (.37 units)

Total Stake: 2.76 units

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