2019 Belmont Stakes Trifecta, Superfecta Betting Picks: Use Tacitus, War of Will?

2019 Belmont Stakes Trifecta, Superfecta Betting Picks: Use Tacitus, War of Will? article feature image
Credit:

Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports.

  • The 2019 Belmont Stakes will be run on Saturday, June 8 at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
  • Sean Zerillo offers some strategies to help pick the right combination for exotics, including his trifecta and superfecta plays.

The Belmont Stakes is the third jewel of the Triple Crown, and typically my personal favorite racing day (and weekend) of the year.

War of Will has a chance to win two of the three legs of the Triple Crown series, with an argument that he also would have been making a move in the deep stretch on a disqualified Maximum Security in the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Bill Mott (Tacitus) also has a chance to win two of the three legs after Country House was moved up to first place following that Derby incident. Mott previously won the Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer (2010).

This is a great betting race for single race exotics. Here’s how I’m playing them:

2019 Belmont Stakes Odds

No. 1: Joevia (30-1)
No. 2: Everfast (12-1)
No. 3: Master Fencer (8-1)
No. 4: Tax (15-1)
No. 5: Bourbon War (12-1)
No. 6: Spinoff (15-1)
No. 7: Sir Winston (12-1)
No. 8: Intrepid Heart (10-1)
No. 9: War of Will (2-1)
No. 10: Tacitus (9-5)

2019 Belmont Stakes Trifecta, Superfecta Plays

I think we’re in for a chalky Belmont Stakes this year, with No. 10 Tacitus (36%) and No. 9 War of Will (33%) winning this race nearly 70% of the time based upon the implied morning line odds.

I think it should be closer to 80%.

Both horses been working with great energy leading up to the race, drew well outside together for desired tracking trips, and should have the stamina (as much as anyone can tell) to see out the 1.5 mile distance that is rarely run on dirt anymore in American horse racing.

Tacitus is by Tapit (and champion mare Close Hatches), sire of three of the past five winners of the Belmont Stakes: Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016) and Tapwrit (2017).

Tapit will have two other runners in this race, No. 8 Intrepid Heart, and No. 5 Bourbon War. I think you need to use all three Tapit’s in single-race exotics.

Bourbon War is taking the blinkers back off and could provide value to hit the bottom of the board here after being nowhere as everybody’s “wise guy” horse in the Preakness.

However, he’s too deep of a closer to get a bigger prize. Runners generally need to be forwardly-placed in order to win at this distance on “Big Sandy,” especially with its unique surface and wide turns.

Though I also like No. 7 Sir Winston, who has looked great in workouts and comes into this race with the best last-out speed figure (in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont) I also don’t think that he can win; but I will be using him underneath.

The longshot I like most in here is the No. 6 Spinoff, trained by New York-based trainer Todd Pletcher who has consistently put horses in the money in this race (three winners, three placed in 12 years).

Pletcher is also the trainer of Intrepid Heart, another point for that horse, but I think that Spinoff is being overlooked after never picking his feet up in the mud at the Derby. At minimum, he should be forwardly placed.

No. 4 Tax also has the right running style for this race. I’m just slightly concerned with an issue this week that caused a bruise to his foot, and am not sure if I will include him on my tickets.

No. 3 Master Fencer had one of the best closing times in the Kentucky Derby, but he is another deep closer and he has not looked good at all in his works leading up to this race.

I’ll let No. 1 Joevia and No. 2 Everfast beat me (again, in Everfast’s case).

I think that this is a better field than what Everfast saw while placing in the Preakness, and he got a dream trip on the inside just behind War of Will in that race. To me, he’s not as good as the other closers in here.

Joevia is perhaps the only early speed in the race, so maybe he can hang on and hit the bottom of tickets. I just don’t think he’s of the same quality as these other horses, especially on a fast track as both of his wins came over sloppy surfaces.

I’ll key the favorites together and flip some price horses around underneath. If you like both favorites, an exacta box is a sound play.

I’m considering leaving the 3 (Master Fencer) and 4 (Tax) off of my trifecta and superfecta tickets. These tickets below are minimum bets:

$0.50 Trifecta  = $6 Ticket (10 combinations)

1st: 9, 10

2nd: 9, 10

3rd: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

$0.50 Trifecta  = $6 Ticket (10 combinations)

1st: 9, 10

2nd: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

3rd: 9, 10

$0.10 Superfecta  = $6 Ticket (40 combinations)

1st: 9, 10

2nd: 9, 10

3rd: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

4th: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

$0.10 Superfecta  = $6 Ticket (40 combinations)

1st: 9, 10

2nd: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

3rd: 9, 10

4th: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

$0.10 Superfecta  = $6 Ticket (60 combinations)

1st: 9, 10

2nd: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

3rd: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

4th: 9, 10