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2019 Louisiana Derby Betting Odds, Guide: Who Can Upset War Of Will?

2019 Louisiana Derby Betting Odds, Guide: Who Can Upset War Of Will? article feature image

Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports.

While most of the betting world is focusing on March Madness, horseplayers are getting ready for the Kentucky Derby on May 4.

With Churchill Downs looming, the racing season is starting to really hit its stride and there is some fantastic racing today at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

Before we get to the picks, let’s get caught up on what’s been a weird start to the horse racing season.

The first key Kentucky Derby prep races took place last Saturday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. After the cancellation of the San Felipe Stakes, which is usually an important prep race for the Derby, a bunch of the best California thoroughbreds shipped east to participate in The Rebel Stakes.

The overflow of entries caused the race to be split into two divisions and Bob Baffert had favorites in both divisions: Improbable and Game Winner.

Both of Baffert’s horses ran very strong races and finished in second. Keep an eye on both of them as we get closer and closer to the first Saturday in May.

Of the two horses that won in the Oaklawn headliner, Omaha Beach and Long Range Toddy, I’d pay closer attention to the former. Omaha Beach took a little while to figure everything out, finally breaking his maiden in his previous start, but he’s been showing real ability for some time.

It just took a few races for that to come together. Expect him to improve in his next start as well.

Let’s get to today’s big race.

The Twinspires Louisiana Derby Odds and Analysis

Post-time: 5:13 p.m. ET

The Field

  • No. 1 Roiland, 12-1
  • No. 2 Lemniscate, 15-1
  • No. 3 Limonite, 20-1
  • No. 4 Sueno Corey, 8-1
  • No. 5 By My Standards, 12-1
  • No. 6 War of Will, 6-5
  • No. 7 Mr. Money, 20-1
  • No. 8 Country House, 9-2
  • No. 9 Bankit, 20-1
  • No. 10 Spinoff, 8-1
  • No. 11 Hog Creek Hustle, 12-1

Most people think No. 6 War Of Will (6-5) will run his record on the dirt to a perfect 4-for-4 and it’s definitely to look past him as he’s become a different horse since he’s switched surfaces. He’s dominated the field — including some horses in this race — in his three dirt starts.

Realistically, barring an unforeseen problem like stumbling badly at the start or something along those lines, he’s likely to dominate horses he’s faced already again today.

If you’re looking for an upset, it’s best to start with some horses War Of Will is facing for the first time. That includes No. 4 Sueno (8-1), who shipped in from California and is coming off a very strong second-place finish at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes (a prep normally for last week’s Rebel Stakes), and No. 10 Spinoff (10-1), a Florida horse coming off a decent allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs after a six-month layoff.

Both of those horses can test the favorite.

I’ll also be interested in No. 8 Country House (9-2), even though he’s went up against War Of Will previously. Country House has a few interesting things going for him, the most glaring of which is that he finished second in his last race against War Of Will at the Risen Star Stakes at the same track they will be racing on today.

Country House had an absolutely terrible trip in that race. He broke poorly, was wide into the first turn in a 14-horse field and had issues down the stretch. And he still finished second.

Country House is trained by Bill Mott, who has had a fantastic meet this winter. He’s been training lights out in his last two workouts and he could be due to move forward off his last race. Plus, it doesn’t hurt to have had a race over this track already.

War Of Will is nearly odds-on for a reason, but if you’re looking for a little value, No. 8 Country House is worth a long look.

And if you’re looking to bet the late Pick-4 at Fair Ground (Races 10 through 13), here are my picks:

  • Race 10: 2,3,6,10, Winner: No. 3
  • Race 11: 2,3,7, Winner:  No. 7
  • Race 12: 2,4,6,8, Winner: No. 6
  • Race 13: 6,8,10, Winner: No. 8

If you’re looking for more horse racing action, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @adamstaple if you need help with any plays this weekend. Next week I’ll be participating in the $1 million Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Hotel in Las Vegas on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 

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