Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 15: Best Value Bets for Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday’s racing at Tampa Bay Downs will start at 12:30 p.m. ET, and like last week there’s a significant carryover in a multi-race pool.
Instead of a $.50 Pick 5, this carryover of $51,835 is in the 20-cent Pick six, spanning races 3-8.
We’ll begin in Race 1, which commences the Early Pick 5 sequence.
Race 1 (Early Pick 5)
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
The first race of the day is a maiden race for fillies (meaning, for female horses who have never won before) going six furlongs (six-eighths of a mile) on the dirt.
There are three relatively low prices in the eight-horse field, including the No. 3 Explosive Package (7-5), No. 1 Little Natalia (2-1), and No. 8 She’s a Fair Catch (5-2).
Little Natalia is the most lightly raced of the group, with just one career start back in July – when she broke poorly and finished fifth by 10 lengths. However, she surely matured over the winter and has been working weekly since March 8 for new trainer Antonio Machado, who is 5 for 22 (23%, $4.51 ROI) with first-time starters.
Explosive Package has the best last-out and last-three speed figures in the field, but while their trainer Derek Ryan is winning at a 13% clip both on the dirt and in sprint races, and at a 10% clip in maiden claimer races, those haven’t been profitable investments overall.
There isn’t a ton of early speed in this race, potentially leaving Explosive Package exposed in the later stages. And Little Natalia also gets Tampa Bay Downs’ top jockey, Antonio Gallardo, on the mount; a man who is winning at a 23% clip, and hitting the board in 54% of his starts
The jockey/trainer combo for Little Natalia is six for 14 at this meet, with a $5.21 ROI; conversely, the combo for Explosive Package is zero for five.
I’ll use both in multi-race wagering, but the horse on the rail is my top choice.
Picks: 1 over 3, 8, 2
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Race 2 (Early Pick 4)
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
The two favorites in the second race of the day, a five-furlong turf sprint, are the No. 8 My Eclair (2-1), ridden by leading jockey Gallardo, and the No. 5 Charliecando (3-1), mounted by his closest competition Samy Camacho.
In addition to Gallardo, My Eclair has trainer Michael Stidham in his corner – who leads the current Tampa Bay Downs meet with a 27% win rate amongst all trainers with at least 30 starts.
My Eclair looks primed to break his maiden after turning in a couple of sharp efforts in his first two career starts. In his debut sprint he blitzed the early fractions (20.4 quarter mile; 44.4 half) before fading late in the stretch and ran a similar race while stretching out to a mile in his second career start.
The mile was probably too long for him, however. He recently turned in four-furlong bullet workout on March 26, and should take a step forward off of that effort.
However, the trainer for Charliecando has some impressive stats – 2 for 10 in first turf starts ($8.74 ROI); 4 for 11 in Turf Sprints ($11.20 ROI); and 6 for 38 overall on the turf ($3.55 ROI).
I’m also intrigued by the No. 1 Connector (5-1) who has never raced before but has posted multiple impressive workouts at four furlongs, and the No. 4 K’s Funhouse (10-1), running for a barn that wins at a 24% rate with horses using Lasix for the first time.
Picks: 8 over 1, 5, 4
Race 3 (Pick 6)
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
The stalking No. 8 Blazing Brooke (3-1) gets leading rider Antonio Gallardo abroad for this one mile and 40-yard route on dirt – and if she can work out a stalking trip from her wide post she’ll be dangerous late in the stretch.
The No. 4 Speeding Starlet (9-2) also has tactical speed and should enjoy the stretch back out to what may be her ideal distance.
I’ll likely be against the No. 5 Lady Love (4-1), who I think might be better on turf, and would instead prefer to use the No. 1 Blue Chicory (7-2); who could grab and maintain the lead – as indicated by her 60 Beyer figure at the same distance while winning last time out.
Picks: 4 over 8, 1, 5
Race 4 (Late Pick 5)
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
This one-mile turf race is the most wide-open race of the day thus far, and we’ll begin with the uncoupled entry with the No. 2 Overpraise (9-2) and No. 5 Milburn (5-2) for trainer Anthony Granitz.
Overpraise will likely try to get in an early speed duel with the No. 9 American Driven (6-1) to set-up the pace for Milburn late.
Another closer I like is the No. 10 Old Fort (6-1), who has consistently run Beyer figures in the mid to high 50’s. He’ll need to improve in order to top Milburn (62, 64) but is otherwise tied with Overpraise for the second-highest figure (59) in the field.
Lastly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the No. 7 Analyzeyourvision (5-1) gets a piece. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell wins 18% of the time both at the maiden claimer level and after layoffs between 31-60 days.
Milburn and Old Fort are my “A” horses. The other three are “B” options.
Picks: 5 over 10, 7, 2
Race 5 (Late Pick 4)
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
The No. 8 Federale (9-5) is the horse to beat in this six-furlong dirt sprint – he has good early speed and adds blinkers, which should only sharpen him up.
I’m not super keen on trying to beat him, but if I do would prefer to use a first-time starter like the No. 3 Impressive Speed (8-1) or No. 4 Adios See Ya (10-1), both of whom own solid work tabs recently.
Second-time starter No. 1 Golden V C (20-1) could also improve at a big number, and its difficult to leave off the No. 9 Large (9-2), who progressed from show to place in his first two starts.
Picks: 8 over 9, 1, 4
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
I see multiple win contenders in this 1 1/16 mile Turf race, and if you’re going to play it for multi-race wagering I would spread with the No. 3 Argentinian Roots (5-1), No. 4 Rosalda (3-1), No. 5 Sudden Light (9-2), No. 6 I’m That Bird (4-1), and No. 9 Big Angel (7-2).
Picks: 9 over 6, 4, 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
My top selection in this seven-furlong dirt sprint is the No 5 Relishment (5-1), who should be able to work out a stalking trip with speed directly to his inside.
Additionally, the No. 7 Devil’s Rule (4-1) and No. 8 Absalom (6-1) could each win this race with moderate improvement over their career-best efforts.
And though I don’t love the trainer stats for the No. 2 Good Solution (6-1), he’s fast enough to win this race if he runs as well on the dirt as he did on turf.
Picks: 5 over 9, 7, 8[Bet now at TVG and get your first bet 100% risk-free up to $300.]
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
We might get an uncontested pace in the final race of the day, a 1 1/16 mile turf route, potentially setting the table for the No. 6 My Little Rosy (5-1) – who is moving from dirt to turf – or the No. 10 Smarty Cat (12-1).
Smarty Cat will make her second start off of a layoff, and her first with trainer Edward Allard – who is four for six ($8.30 ROI) second off of the layoff between 45-180 days.
Her main competition will likely come in the form of the No. 2 Jackies Dream (3-1) or No. 3 Strict Vow (5-2), but I’m anticipating an upset in the final race of the day.
Picks: 10 over 3, 6, 2
Bets for Tampa Bay Downs, April 15
Favorite Win Bets
- Race 2: No. 8 My Eclair (2-1)
- Race 5: No. 8 Federale (9-5)
- Race 8: No. 10 Smarty Cat (12-1)
Sample Multi-Race Wagers
- Early Pick 5 (Race 1): 1,3/8/1,4,8/5,7,10/8
- Early Pick 4 (Race 2): 8/1,4,8/5,7,10/8
- Pick 6 (Race 3): 1,4,8/5/8/3,4,5,6,9/2,5,7,8/2,3,10