Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 8: Best Value Bets for Tampa Bay Downs

Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 8: Best Value Bets for Tampa Bay Downs article feature image

Photo by A. Messerschmidt/Getty Images. Pictured: Jockey Derek C. Bell, riding Youknowshesright, wins the fourth race at Tampa Bay Downs, December 9, 2006 in Oldsmar, Fla.

Wednesday’s racing at Tampa Bay Downs will start at 12:30 p.m. ET, and I’m going to focus on the Late Pick 5 sequence beginning in Race 4 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

That pool offers a carryover of $81,240 from Sunday when a trio of longshot winners disrupted the Pick 5, providing added value to midweek multi-race bettors.

We’ll begin in Race 1, which commences the Early Pick 5 sequence.

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Race 1

Time: 12:30 p.m. ET

The favorite in this in this one-mile and 40-yard dirt claiming race is the No. 6 Segismundo (5-2), coming off of a third-place effort on the turf where he looked to be the likely winner until late in the stretch when he ducked out into traffic and was disqualified from second.

He moves over to the dirt where his effort two starts back (64 Beyer) when he drew clear to win by nearly seven lengths on the main track in Tampa would be fast enough to win again here.

But he will have to rate behind pace-setting No. 7 Upper Crown (6-1), who could wire this field, and may have to put away the No. 2 What a Hoot (9-2), another turf-to-dirt mover, earlier than anticipated.

The No. 4 Fledermaus (7-2) also showed early speed in his last start, winning by six lengths at the same distance after moving to dirt, and the No. 8 The Kahn (4-1) should improve in his second start off of the claim for leading trainer Gerald S. Bennett.

The favorite No. 6 Segismundo hasn’t missed the board in his past six starts, however, and is 2-1-1 in five starts over fast tracks. And the competitive field means that he should come to post at a square number.

You could either bet him to win, or use him as a single to begin some early horizontal wagers (Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 5), but I’m not interested in any single-race exotics to begin the day.

Picks: 6 over 8, 2, 4

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Race 2

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

The No. 9 V K Legacy (3-1) is favored in this 1 1/16-mile maiden turf race for fillies and mares and comes in with the two highest last-out Beyer figures on turf (51, 51) in the field.

She finished third in her last start (by a neck) over two other competitors in this race, the No. 1 Two Step Beat (9-2) and No. 3 Action Absolute Ds (6-1), but only the former has shown the ability to pass horses late, and also owns the highest career Beyer figure (54) on the grass in this field.

The No. 8 All American Jewel (4-1) can also come with a late kick and should compete for a prize if she runs back to her start from just one week ago.

In a maiden, however, I’ll always look for a price horse and I landed on the lightly raced No. 6 Lilys From Paris (12-1), who should continue to improve in her third career start, but I’m not entirely against the favorite.

Picks: 6 over 9, 1, 8

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Race 3

Time: 1:30 p.m. ET

This is a competitive six-furlong dirt-sprint claimer for three-year-old fillies, with the No. 7 Tipsy Again (7-2) favored in her third career start after winning by six lengths at 5 1/2 furlongs in Tampa on March 20, posting a race-leading 56 Beyer speed figure.

The No. 1 Bareback Fun (4-1) should bounce back off of a poor effort in her second start after breaking her maiden with a 54 Beyer last December.

And the No. 4 Graycliff (6-1) is in the same situation, though her debut (45 Beyer) wasn’t as strong. But she posted a bullet workout (first of 89 runners) on March 29 and looks primed to take a step forward while adding blinkers.

Additionally, the No. 3 Diamond News (5-1) and No. 9 Chit Chat Girl (9-2) are very game competitors and either one or both seem likely to hit the board.

Picks: 4 over 1, 7, 3

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Race 4

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET

This is not an easy spot to begin a Pick 5, with two lukewarm morning-line favorites in this 1 1/16-mile turf route with the No. 3 Bizness Beauty (3-1) and No. 4 Shenu Shenume (7-2) each coming off of abysmal efforts (Beyer figures of 39, 38, respectively).

I’ll be using those horses defensively in multi-race wagering while keying on the No. 5 Noble Intentions (9-2) and No. 9 Finest Jewel (6-1) as my “A” options.

The No. 7 Miley (8-1) is worth using underneath in exotics if his odds climb over 10-1, and I like the also-eligible No. 12 Argentinian Roots (8-1) if he draws into the race.

Picks: 9 over 4, 5, 7

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Race 5

Time: 2:30 p.m. ET

The morning line favorite No. 6 Goneasagirlcanget (2-1) is a must-use in this seven-furlong sprint after nearly going gate-to-wire in her last start on Feb. 22.

She has placed three times in seven starts, by fewer than two lengths combined, and looks poised to finally break her maiden while competing against older horses for the first time.

Upset contenders who I’m eyeing with the most robust speed figures include the No. 1 Moments to Saver (8-1), No. 4 Langue Liee (9-2), No. 9 Mighty Electrica (6-1), and No. 10 Katie Faloona (5-1), but I think that this is a race where the chalk prevails.

Of the price horses, the No. 7 She’s a Fair Catch (10-1) should improve with added distance, and off of the claim for her new trainer.

Picks: 6 over 10, 7, 4

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Race 6

Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

This is a claiming race for older female horses, going one mile on the turf, and it looks to have quite a bit of early speed.

The likely pace scenario plays well for a late runner like the No. 4 Barrel of Destiny (7-2), who is dropping in class, or the No. 8 Better Yet (8-1) to close down the pack in the stretch.

Better Yet was third behind the No. 1 She’s Dynomite (5-1) and No. 6 Itsagimme’s Girl (9-2) on March 21 after the leaders set a leisurely pace. Still, the additional early pressure from the No. 3 I Dream of Lois (12-1) and No. 5 Monkey Mind (3-1) this time around should alter proceedings in the late stages.

I’m mostly against the speed horses in Race 7, but I will include the No. 5 Monkey Mind in multi-race tickets. He owns the top three Beyer speed figures in the field, including the only number higher than 80.

Picks: 4 over 5, 8, 6

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Race 7

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

The No. 9 Amelia’s Wild Ride (5-2), a graded stakes-winning turf sprinter but in decline at the age of 9, is undoubtedly a tepid morning-line favorite in this six-furlong dirt sprint . However, this horse has hit the board in 11 of 18 lifetime starts on fast dirt.

The 7-year-old No. 7 Big Gillette (4-1) is also moving from turf to dirt and has hit the board in five of seven starts on fast dirt — though all four career wins are on the grass.

The win candidates I’m looking to include are the No. 1 Ima Wildcat (6-1), who should improve in his second start from a layoff, the No. 4 Double Deep (7-2), and the closing No. 6 The Great Loudini (5-1).

And I like the frontrunning No. 5 Solitary Jack (10-1) to potentially stick around and slip into the back end of the exotics.

Picks: 4 over 1, 9, 5

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Race 8

Time: 4:00 p.m. ET

The final race of the day is an extremely competitive maiden special weight, going one mile on the turf.

The morning-line favorite is the No. 9 Gaelic Gold (3-1), a first-time starter for Christophe Clement, who historically wins at a 29% clip with debut runners.

The No. 1 Twirling Star (5-1) needs to improve in her second start stretching out off of a layoff to win, but her March 15 race looked to be a step in the right direction.

The No. 2 Heavenly Peace (4-1) ships over from Gulfstream Park after a debut where she broke poorly but showed determination to finish six lengths off of the lead — posting a 63 Beyer, which makes her very competitive in here.

The No. 3 Clear as Day (7-2) owns two of the best speed figures in the field and posted a bullet workout on April 2 following a disappointing racing effort on March 20. Those speed metrics make this horse a contender.

The No. 7 Windfall Profit (6-1) hasn’t run well in either turf start, but will still draw money coming out of Shug McGaughey’s barn. She’s adding Lasix for the first time and seems poised to improve off of a long layoff, but I would expect to see her number closer to 4-1 by post time.

A couple of horses who could hit the board at odds include the No. 4 Kitten Empress (15-1), who has a strong turf pedigree, and the No. 10 Screen Image (12-1), who owns the top speed figure in this field (albeit from June 2018).

Wednesday’s late Pick 5 is a minefield, starting and ending with a pair of spread races.

Picks: 7 over 2, 3, 9

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Bets for Tampa Bay Downs, April 8

Favorite Win Bets

  • Race 1: No. 6 Segismundo (5-2)
  • Race 3: No. 4 Graycliff (6-1)
  • Race 5: No. 6 Goneasagirlcanget (2-1)

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Sample Multi-Race Wagers

You can also build out horizontal tickets around your favorite win bets.

I wouldn’t recommend playing all of these wagers, however. Notice how most tickets are tied to the same No. 6 horse in Race 5?

By playing all of these tickets together, one would be overexposed on a single option in that race.

Due to the substantial carryover, focus on the late Pick 5 on Wednesday, and build some out some smaller multi-race exotics in the early and middle part of the card.

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