Is Betting the Kentucky Derby Really as Easy as Going Chalk?

May 05, 2018 12:30 AM EDT
Credit:

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

The 144th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs with a post time of 6:34 p.m. ET. The field includes 20 horses with Justify the current favorite at 3-1 odds.

 

Novice horse bettors are likely to chase the chalk, as Justify is the favorite for a reason. In other sports, betting favorites rarely works. In the NFL, favorites are 1,859-1,860-111 ATS since 2005, costing $100 bettors $7,852. In the NBA during the same time frame, the favored team is 8,079-8,160-293 ATS resulting in a $47,806 loss for a $100 bettor. Same story in baseball (18,339-13,652, -$59,234) and hockey (9,120-6,373-2, -$20,262).

At The Action Network, we often take a contrarian strategy when it comes to sports betting and that usually means fading the public and betting underdogs. Does this approach work for the Kentucky Derby?

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