Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna Odds, Pick | Friday La Liga Betting Prediction

Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna Odds, Pick | Friday La Liga Betting Prediction article feature image

Juan Manuel Serrano/Getty. Pictured: Ante Budimir.

Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna Odds

Friday, Apr. 14
3 p.m. ET

Rayo Vallecano Odds


Osasuna Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-188 / +150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+110 / -150)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Rayo Vallecano welcome Osasuna to the Estadio de Vallecas on Friday night to open this weekend’s La Liga action.

The hosts have enjoyed another solid season in the Spanish top flight, sitting comfortably mid-table in ninth on 37 points.

Meanwhile, the visitors are one spot ahead, but their chances of qualifying for Europe are slipping away.

Even if neither side has played well since the World Cup break, this could present betting value in what I’m not expecting to be the most entertaining fixture of the week.

Rayo Vallecano Settling in to End of Season

Things have not been the same for Vallecano since the new year, which started with them getting knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Segunda Division side Sporting Gijón.

Manager Andoni Iraola’s team has followed that by picking up just three wins over the next 13 fixtures in the league, with none coming over the last eight.

Over this winless run, Rayo have posted a -2.7 xGDiff and allowed 1.55 xG per 90 minutes.

If there is one positive, there have only been three losses during this stretch, but they need to start churning out some victories to stay in the top half of the table.

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Osasuna Struggling For Good Reason

Osasuna represent another team that has really struggled over the recent months. However, manager Jagoba Arrasate’s side has qualified for the final of the Copa del Rey.

It is the second time in the club’s history that they have reached the final. A victory would be a chance to win their first trophy.

This focus on the cup run has caused the team’s league form to struggle, with only four La Liga clubs picking up fewer points over the last 10 matches.

The main issues have come been trying to find the back of the net, where Osasuna have averaged just 0.76 xG per game over this span. This has to improve if they want their league form to match the cup run.

Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna Pick

Looking at the odds for this match, Rayo Vallecano enter as the +110 moneyline favorite to go along with a low total. I don’t see any value in betting a side, but I do feel there’s a way to attack the total.

With that said, my best bet is for the total to fall under two at +102, which I would play to -110 odds.

Starting first with the host, Rayo have only scored nine times over the last 10 games, which is the fourth-lowest total in La Liga. One of the squads that has scored less is Osasuna, finding the back of the net on six occasions during this span.

The visitors have failed to score in seven of their last 10 matches and averaged just 1.2 big chances. This is the same side that has only created 0.71 xG and 0.93 big scoring chances per road fixture this season.

As a result of these struggles in front of goal, this same bet has only lost in three of the last 14 in the Spanish top flight for Osasuna, including just once away from home.

Once you add in the fact that only three of the last 12 fixtures for Rayo have had more than two goals, I think we have a great show for a low-scoring affair here.

Pick: Under 2 (+102)

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