The Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on August 8, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Pirates are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Pirates Prediction
- Mets vs Pirates Pick: Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Hits (+200, bet365)
My Mets vs Pirates best bet is on Nick Gonzales to go under his hits total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Pirates Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +155 | 9 -109o / -110u | +114 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 9 -109o / -110u | -130 |
- Mets vs Pirates moneyline: Mets +114, Pirates -130
- Mets vs Pirates over/under: 9 (-109o / -110u)
- Mets vs Pirates spread: Pirates -1.5 (+155 ), Mets +1.5 (-190)
Mets vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| RHP Robert Stock (NYM) | Stat | RHP Bubba Chandler (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 4-8 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 1.80/5.99 | ERA / xERA | 4.49/4.12 |
| 4.09/3.01 | FIP / xFIP | 4.29/4.93 |
| 22.2% | K-BB% | 7.6% |
| 28.6% | GB% | 38.8% |
| .154 | BABIP | .272 |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 112 | Location+ | 101 |
Mets vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
New York (51-66) comes into Saturday on a high note after taking Friday night's opener 6-4. While the Mets' season hasn't gone according to plan, their offense has executed when it matters most, racking up 10 hits and capitalizing on timely hits.
On Saturday, the Mets turn to right-hander Robert Stock (0-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP). Stock has given New York quality length and strong swing-and-miss numbers in limited action, relying on a heavy fastball and a sharp breaking mix to keep opposing batters off balance.
Pittsburgh (57-61) enters Saturday needing a bounce-back win to halt a four-game losing streak. The Pirates have played decent baseball at PNC Park overall (29-29 at home), but their bats have cooled down during this current skid.
Top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler (4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 98 Ks) takes the bump for Pittsburgh. Chandler has displayed middle-of-the-rotation upside, but inconsistency in early-inning command has forced the Pirates to lean heavily on their bullpen.
Mets vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Our PRO Projections model has identified an edge on Pittsburgh second baseman Nick Gonzales to go Under 0.5 Hits.
Gonzales faces Robert Stock, a righty who generates heavy ground balls and swing-and-misses outside the zone. Stock's raw spin rate and deceptive movement present a challenging matchup for Gonzales, who has struggled against right-handers with high-velocity primary pitches.
When Gonzales isn't barreling up baseballs, his elevated chase rate on slider/sweeper options makes him vulnerable early in counts. The Mets' bullpen behind Stock also features several high-leverage righties equipped with elite wipeout pitches, making late-game hit opportunities equally tough to come by.
PRO Projections model calculates Gonzales' expected hit total well below the market's implied hit probability (projecting him for under 0.40 hits on average in this matchup). When sportsbooks set hit props at standard baseline odds, fading a hitter against a specific pitch mix where his expected hit rate sits below 40% creates a clear mathematical edge over the market.
Pick: Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Hits (+200, bet365)
