Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, August 8.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Red Sox -215, 2.15u | Bet to -260
- Phillies (F5) -156, 0.62u | Bet to -180
- Phillies -150, 0.9u | Bet to -185
- Nationals (F5) +134, 1u | Bet to +110
- Astros (F5) 100, 0.5u | Bet to -105
- Rockies/Cardinals Under 9 (-118), 1u | Bet to 8.5
- Rangers -135, 1.35u | Bet to -170
- Guardians (F5) -135, 0.68u | Bet to -135
- Guardians/White Sox Under 8 (-108), 0.54u | Bet to -115
- C.Sale Over 7.5 Ks -115, 0.58u | Bet to -130
- T.Bradley Over 5.5 Ks – 135, 0.68u | Bet to -155
- P.Lambert Over 4.5 Ks -115, 0.58u | Bet to -130
- G.Williams Over 7.5 Ks -105, 1.05u | Bet to -155
- G.Jax Over 5.5 Ks +109, 0.5u | Bet to 100
Athletics @ Red Sox Picks
A few general statements concerning the entire slate first.
While it’s great that just about every pitcher was confirmed in a timely manner on Friday, allowing for an early start, it also means I may not be aware of any injuries developing during Friday’s games and could miss any pitcher swaps, which have been occurring frequently lately. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to list pitchers if there are no pricing penalties. Lastly, understand that I am reading earlier weather forecasts too, which, the further out they are, the more volatile they’re likely to be.
With all of that out of the way…
This may be the largest line I’ve projected all season and certainly the largest one I have written about. It makes complete sense with coldest team in the league traveling to face the hottest one. The A’s and Red Sox are about as far apart as two teams can get right now.
Gage Jump was an interesting rookie over his first 10 major league starts, but has walked 14 of his last 67 batters, while the 94.8 mph he averaged on his fastball last time out was his lowest of the season by 0.8 mph.
He still has a 4.59 ERA that’s at least one-third of a run above all estimators and we certainly give him some benefit of the doubt when pitching outside Sacramento, but some of the former excitement has turned to current concern.
This is also a spot where a Fenway run environment, normally 4% above average (Statcast 3 yr) could be boosted another 10% or more via weather, potentially not making it much different than the run environment Jump usually pitches in.
Then there’s the Boston projected lineup which averages a 119 wRC+ and .197 ISO against LHP this year and a stunning 160 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Nick Sogard’s 94 wRC+ over the last month is the only mark on the BARTOLO projected (all projected lineups for Saturday from BARTOLO) board below 130!
The A’s also have one of the worst defenses in the league with Saturday’s projected one sitting at -8 FRV and a bullpen that’s been worst in the league over the last month with an average FIP, xFIP and SIERA above five, along with BARTOLO ranking them 25th in the league right now.
Jake Bannett has also hit a bit of a rough patch over his last three starts, allowing 39% of his runs on the season in just 25% of his starts. He’s allowed exactly three runs with exactly four strikeouts each of those starts, but all might not be so dreadful when you consider his last two starts in Sacramento and Los Angeles (NL) yielded a combined 33.3 HardHit% with a 10.2 SwStr%.
While the projected Athletics’ lineup still merits an average 100 wRC+ against LHP this season, they also average a 78 wRC+ on the road and 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Boston also boasts one of the best defenses in the league with 9 FRV if BARTOLO’s lineup is correct. That’s 17 FRV better than the A’s.
The Red Sox have the best bullpen estimators over the last month, averaging indicators barely above three, and nearly two full runs better than the Athletics, along with enjoying BARTOLO’s second best ranking.
The Red Sox have every edge here and starting pitching may be the smallest one, where I only have Bennett a quarter of a run better than Gage. Offense, bullpen and defensive gaps are all massive.
A lot of people love to bet big favorites. I dread it, but can’t find enough justification to avoid it here.
For those of you who feel the same, Boston’s 5.5 run total at even money looks good too.
Otherwise I’d play this to -260, reducing to win half a unit around -225.
Picks: Red Sox -215, 2.15u | Bet to -260
Blue Jays @ Phillies Picks
Max Scherzer, on loan from the IL, has allowed just two runs over 8.2 innings, while striking out nine of 38 batters and walking four. He’s allowed just one barrel on a 36 HardHit% and is even generating 48% of his contact on the ground since returning, though there have been no pitch usage alterations that might have caused that.
The bad news is that he had just an 8.8 SwStr% and six of those innings were against the slumbering Cardinals.
Scherzer’s best and only estimator below five on the season is a 4.63 Bot ERA that co-exists with a 93 Pitching+.
In 30.2 overall innings, LHBs have a .442 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against him this year.
Four Phillies have a wRC+ above 100 against RHP this year and they are all left-handed, all also ranging from a 118 (Brandon Marsh) to 166 (Bryce Harper).
If Scherzer doesn’t plan on keeping the ball on the ground, and I don’t see any reason why he would, this is a very dangerous spot for him.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has a 4.37 ERA over his last six starts and hey, it’s a full run better than his 5.55 ERA on the season.
Home runs are his problem and why he may never pitch to his non-FIP estimators with nine of 10 barrels still leaving the park during this stretch and 28 of 36 on the year, but he’s significantly increased his changeup usage from below 15% to 24.2% in these starts and has improved his pitch modeling to a 3.44 Bot ERA and 109 Pitching+, partially because of that pitch grading better than it was before, along with his fastball (the curveball has always been elite).
The Dodgers are the only team to score more than three runs against him over this span.
I don’t know if anyone even cares what’s wrong with the Toronto offense anymore, but BARTOLO’s projected nine average an 86 wRC+ on the road, 99 wRC+ vs RHP and 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Blue Jays are playing out the string.
I have Nola about four-fifths of a run superior to Scherzer and the Philadelphia offense 15 points of wRC+ better. That certainly makes up for a 20 FRV deficit.
Via last 30 day bullpen estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), the Blue Jays have been a quarter run better over the last month.
However, the Phillies have made some moves to improve their unit (Brooks Raley, Caleb Killian), while the Blue Jays have subtracted (Jeff Hoffman).
Leaning on BARTOLO rankings which put the Phillies 10 spots and one-third of a run better than Blue Jays would make more sense here.
Only showing about 1.5 percentage points of difference in value, I’m going to split a unit to win 0.6/0.4 between full game and F5.
Picks: Phillies (F5) -156, 0.62u | Bet to -180, Phillies -150, 0.9u | Bet to -185
Reds @ Nationals Picks
Despite striking out nine Pirates in his last start, Chase Burns still has just a 22.7 K%, 10 K-BB% and 11.4 SwStr% over his last five starts in contrast to his 28.7 K%, 19.7 K-BB% and 14.3 SwStr% on the season.
Not many people may have noticed the difference because he’s only allowed 11 runs over those 27 innings, while four of them have been unearned. Also, just one-third of his barrels have left the yard with a .221 BABIP during this stretch. Not many barrels remain in the park in Cincinnati.
Burns will pass last year’s innings total and career high as a professional in the second inning here and while he averaged a 98 mph fastball over his first 11 starts and 97.5 over his next seven, he hasn’t had even a 97 mph average over any of his last three starts.
He’s also throwing fastballs and sliders 95% of the time. The fastball now has a 6.9 SwStr% on the season, nearly half of last year’s 11.8% mark at the major league level. The league may be catching up and sitting on it.
I’m not concerned long term about Burns, but in the short term, maybe he needs a bit of a break and he’ll eventually have to learn another pitch.
Regardless, I’m still projecting him as a three and a half true talent (for now), which aligns very closely with a 3.55 SIERA and 3.56 xFIP on the season, despite his 2.35 ERA.
A Washington projected lineup without Woods and Garcia Jr. still averages a 100 wRC+ against RHP and 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
While the Cincinnati defense is a bit above average on a team level, they’re sitting at -4 FRV via BARTOLO’s projected nine on Saturday.
Andrew Alvarez has pitched to a 3.91 ERA with a 4.49 xERA, 4.00 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% since his first start, but with a 51.5 GB% and just five total barrels (3.6%).
I have him somewhere between those two marks for the season, about two-thirds of a run worse than Burns.
However, a Cincinnati projected lineup that averages a 99 wRC+ against RHP and 98 over the last month is just a little bit worse than Washington. I only have the gap at 6 points of wRC+ for this game.
And while the Nationals have a poor defense on the season, they’ve been able to upgrade their defense to 10 FRV for Saturday, an 18 FRV edge on the projected Cincinnati defense.
Neither bullpen is very good and I want no part of Washington’s unit, which is why I’m thankful I’m showing a clear value gap in favor of the better F5 number.
One other generally small edge in a single game, the Nationals project 10 BRR (Base Running Runs) ahead of the Reds. Add up all the smaller edges (defense, offense, home field) and I have this one nearly a coin flip.
I’d play this to +110, but drop to 0.5u below +120.
Picks: Nationals +134, 1u | Bet to +110
Astros @ Padres Picks
We’ll start with Peter Lambert’s estimators, ranging from a 3.35 xERA to a 4.46 Bot ERA are both wide ranging and all above his 3.06 ERA.
As one would imagine, he’s been a strong contact manager, allowing just 6.5% Barrels/BBE with a 37.7 HardHit% behind a solid, but unspectacular 15 K-BB%.
However, after posting a 22 K% and 10.3 K-BB% through his first nine starts, Lamber has a 26 K% and 19.1 K-BB% in 10 starts since. Over his last six starts, he has been below a 20 K-BB% only once.
Lambert hasn’t changed his pitch mix or his velocity, but his pitch modeling has improved, most substantially on a changeup with a 58 Pitching Bot mark over those last six starts and a 111 Pitching+ as opposed to 44 and 72 in his first nine.
That may explain why LHBs sit below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA against him on the season, but the Padres will probably only send three to four LHBs out against him.
That’s only a small problem because while RHBs have a .328 wOBA against him, Statcast suggests they deserve a .283 xwOBA.
The San Diego offense has picked it up as of late with BARTOLO’s projected lineup averaging a 108 wRC+ vs RHP this year and 123 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but the former number includes Ty France at 139 and Luis Campusano at 162, which nobody probably expects them to sustain. Though we probably expect Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill to improve on their 104 and 84 marks, respectively.
Still, I have Lambert, who’s ERA is nearly a half run better than Michael King’s exactly a half run better than his opponent, who’s underlying metrics run from a 4.19 FIP to a 4.58 xERA.
Over the last five seasons, King’s K-BB has declined from 25.1% to 22% to 19% to 16.2% to finally, 11.2% this year.
Allowing 6.6% Barrels/BBE over the first three of those seasons has turned into 9.6% in the last two. A sinker and four-seam fastball averaging at least 94 mph in the first two of those seasons haven’t averaged 93 mph in any of the last three.
Then, as good as the projected Padres’ lineup average 123 wRC+ over the last 30 days is, that's matched by the Astros' 123 wRC+ against RHP and over the last 30 days too. They also average a 20 point higher road/home wRC+ than San Diego’s projected nine.
That’s two distinct, sizeable advantages for the road team and where the Padres gain some back defensively and by playing in San Diego, I still make the Astros small favorites here.
I’m quite happy that I’m showing the larger edge over the first five innings because I have no qualms about avoiding the potential appearance of Mason Miller.
This is easily our smallest edge so far though, which I’d only endorse to -105.
Picks: Astros (F5) 100, 0.5u | Bet to -105
Rockies @ Cardinals Picks
While I have very little affinity for either of these pitchers, a total of nine is just too high in this spot.
Kyle Freeland has a 6.81 ERA, but with 10.7% Barrels/BBE, a 5.23 xERA is his only estimator less than two runs better than his surface results. Not to mention the 34 percentage point run suppression improvement he gets just from switching parks.
Also, over the last month, Freeland doesn’t have a contact neutral estimator (SIERA, xFIP) reaching even four with an improvement to .320 in his xwOBA allowed.
Matthew Liberatore, similarly, has a 4.97 ERA that exceeds all of his estimators. In his case as well, the 4.86 xERA is easily the worst of his underlying metrics.
And over the last month, Liberatore has improved to a 3.24 SIERA and .269 xwOBA. He has a 22.1 K-BB%, while allowing a single barrel over this span.
I mention St Louis’s tumbling offense in an earlier game and their projected nine is down to an average 82 wRC+ at home, 95 vs LHP and 63 over the last 30 days. Avoid Jordan Walker (152) and Ivan Herrera (124) and you don’t have to deal with another St Louis batter exceeding a 114 wRC+ against southpaws this year and some of them have small enough sample sizes that they may be even worse.
Meanwhile, while the Rockies have been better, their projected starters average a 94 wRC+ on the road, 97 wRC+ against LHP and 82 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
None of it’s close to average and should we mention again the run environment 6% below average? Current forecasts call for anywhere from a 3% boost to 5% further suppression of that number, though scheduled umpire Willie Traynor (+2.7%) is an extremely hitter friendly official.
Add in the projected St Louis defense at 22 FRV (Colorado at -1) and not even a pair of bottom third bullpens over the last month, who traded away some of their better arms, gets me to nine here.
It’s two sub-average pitchers, both pitching much better over the last month against a par of below average offenses in a run suppressing environment.
I’d play to 8.5, reducing to win 0.5u below 9.
Picks: Under 9 (-118), 1u | Bet to 8.5
Orioles @ Rangers Picks
After picking it up following a rough start to his season, Kyle Bradish now has a 4.22 ERA, 4.08 xERA and 4.50 xFIP over his last six starts.
White his contact profile remains intact, allowing just 36.5% hard contact over this span, the strikeout rate is down to 17.4% with an 8.3 K-BB%. I don’t care what the broadcasters tell you, even soft contact is worse than no contact.
The overall package has him just slightly above four on the season by my weighted numbers.
Bradish will also be facing a Texas lineup finally at full strength and it shows in their average 104 wRC+ against RHP this year and 119 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Only Jake Burger (94 wRC+), Nicky Lopez (88) and Elias Diaz (48) have been below average against RHP.
The Baltimore defense is below average on the season, but Saturday’s projected starters sit at 4 FRV.
The bullpen, however, sits at four and a half by average last 30 day estimators (FIP, xFIP and SIERA) and rank 19th via BARTOLO.
In contrast, Jacob deGrom may be coming off one of his worst starts, but his 3.96 ERA sits more than one-third of a run above estimators that run only as high as a 3.58 xERA. The 45.1 HardHit% has become a problem, but he manages it with a still dominant 22.6 K-BB%.
Then, with Ward and Rutschman gone, Baltimore’s projected lineup averages just an 82 wRC+ against RHP this year. This includes only Pete Alonso (141) reaching 110.
The projected Ranger defense also has an 8 FRV edge over their counterparts, while the Texas bullpen added at the deadline to at least make their now 21st BARTOLO ranked bullpen more competitive.
Giving deGrom a near two-thirds run edge and the Texas offense 15 to 20 points of wRC+ over Baltimore, it’s difficult for the Orioles to make up any ground with only a two team bullpen gap edge.
It all adds up to being significantly higher than the market (-135) on the Rangers here and would prefer the full game to a higher F5 price (-150). I like this to -170, but would drop to win 0.5u above -155.
Picks: Rangers -135, 1.35u | Bet to -170
Guardians @ White Sox Picks
Even the biggest Gavin Williams detractors (right here!) have to admit his undeniability at this point. He’s struck out double digit batters in five straight games and has at least a 44 K-BB% in each of his last four starts.
On the season, he’s up to a 25.2 K-BB% with a 7.1 BB% that’s a career best by 2.5 points.
Even allowing 11.5% Barrels/BBE with a 48.9 HardHit%, he’s still below a four xERA on the year!
It seems Williams has been searching for the right pitch mix for years and it’s finally come down to something as simple as fastball (36.3%)/slider (35.7%) during this Superman streak to hit his peak.
He won’t keep pitching to a 44% or better K-BB, but like I said, he’s undeniable now.
Williams is facing an upstart White Sox projected lineup averaging a 108 wRC+ against RHP, but down to an 82 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Some of the younger guys appear to be suffering the rigors of a long baseball season with Sam Antonacci, Miguel Vargas, both Montgomery’s and Tristan Peters all sitting below a 100 wRC+ over the last month.
The Guardians, always strong defensively, sit at just 5 FRV for Saturday, but that doesn’t account for the likely improvement from Genao’s callup.
Cleveland has the 10th ranked BARTOLO bullpen, though last 30 day estimators average right around four without too much trade deadline improvement.
Anthony Kay’s 4.01 ERA is a victory for the White Sox, but with just a 9.7 K-BB% and a rather pedestrian contact profile (8.5% Barrels/BBE, 39.5 HardHit%), there’s certainly some solid pitch modeling (3.89 Bot ERA, 107 Pitching+), though without another estimators below four and a half.
The Guardians seem to be at least formidable against LHP with the addition of Jo Adell (150 wRC+ against southpaws), now averaging a 104 wRC+ in that department with their projected lineup. However, those same nine average just a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The White Sox have a slightly better projected defense (16 FRV) than the Guardians with slightly better average bullpen estimators over the last month, nearly matching BARTOLO’s 3.81 wFIP that ranks them two spots behind Cleveland on the season.
Our first double dip of the day puts us on the Guardians F5 (-135), though I can’t endorse any higher than this. I have Williams almost exactly a run and a half better than Kay right now, which counters very small White Sox edges nearly everywhere else.
I also can’t get to the eight run total here with a run 4% below average run environment that doesn’t look like it will be affected by more than 2% by weather, though that and umpire Andy Fletcher (+1.7%) may move it back to neutral at worst.
Both edges are the smallest on the slate and I understand many not catch the F5 price, but it seems worth mentioning anyway.
Picks: Guardians F5 -135, 0.68u | Bet to -135, Under 8 (-108), 0.5u | Bet to -115
Strikeout Props
I'm going to try something a little bit different group all the strikeout props together because they're among the last things to be listed (some games still aren't listed).
We start with the first game on the slate.
Chris Sale has popped this number in only 40% of his starts, but there are some factors indicating he’s more likely than not to surpass it here.
Sale has struck out just above 30% of batters from either side of the plate and I only project him to face 22 here. If BARTOLO’s projected lineup holds that’s 15 from the right-hand side, which doesn’t really matter in his case.
What does matter is just two of those batters sitting below a 23.5 K% against LHP this season. For George Lombard Jr., I took his lowest overall strikeout projection at 25.9%.
The lowest of those strikeout rates is Trent Grisham’s 16.8% and he may not even play against a LHP.
Now we look at an environment that gives Sale a 4% boost with a projected umpire (Dan Merzel), who adds another 6%. That’s an overall 10% boost in an already great spot with weather only likely to suppress that by around 1%.
I like Sale to pop a big strikeout number her and would play it to -130.
Taj Bradley came out of Seattle with his lowest strikeout total of the season (2). How?? He even faced 29 batters!
Concerning, but he now gets the second best strikeout environment in the league with a number he’s surpassed in 14 of 22 starts.
Bradley strikes out LHBs (28.3%) at a higher rate than RHBs (23.7%). He is averaging 25 batters faced per start and has been below 23 only five times this season.
That has him facing 14 LHBs on Saturday with the Brewers averaging a 22.8 K% through their first 25 batters and many of the lowest strikeout rates near the bottom of the order.
Let’s get back to that environment again. Milwaukee boosts LHB strikeouts a ridiculous 17% with the roof open, as it generally is during the summer and should be on Saturday with a near perfect baseball forecast.
Adding in an umpire right around neutral gives Bradley a great chance at surpassing a number he has in 63.6% of his starts this season.
Repeating from above, Peter Lambert has one start in his last six below a 20 K-BB% and a 19.1 K-BB% over his last 10 starts. He’s beaten Saturday’s prop number in eight of those 10 starts.
Lambert is also averaging nearly 24 batters faced on the season and over his last five starts. That would get him 11 LHBs and 13 RHBs by BARTOLO’s projected lineups. Lambert has struck out LHBs (25.3%) a bit more than RHBs (22.6%) this season, but both above average.
The Padres don’t strike out much, just 20.1% through their first 24 batters, but this is a low number that should still get Lambert there, especially considering he gets a near 10% environmental and umpire (Alex MacKay) boost.
I’ve given you all the absurd strikeout numbers for Gavin Williams above. Let’s just add that I’m projecting him to face 24 batters on Saturday. 19 of them left-handed and Williams has a slightly higher strikeout rate (32.5%) against LHBs than RHBs (31.9%).
The first 24 batters in the projected White Sox lineup average a 23.3 K% vs RHP, due to two batters above 30% in their top four.
Both the environment and scheduled umpire (Andy Fletcher) suppress strikeouts by 1% each, but the current weather forecast makes up for that and a bit more plus I have Williams pretty far above this number anyway.
This number is climbing as I write this.
Griffin Jax is a full fledged starting pitcher now and over his last eight starts, he’s faced at least 21 batters seven times. He’s also struck out at least six five times.
Yet, we’re getting plus money for him to hit that number in the biggest strikeout boosting park in the league.
If the projected Seattle lineup is correct, Jax gets a 16% boost from Seattle plus another 6-7% boost from scheduled umpire Emil Jimenez.
That’s a MASSIVE boost for a guy who may not need. On top of that, I’m conservatively projecting Jax for only 21 batters.
Jax also strikes out LHBs (28.7%) at a much higher rate than RHBs (22.8%) with him projected to face two-thirds of his batters from that side.
The only negative here is that Seattle has substantially cut down on their strikeouts. Only two in the projected lineup exceed a 21.3 K% vs RHP this year. Both exceed 30% too, but both are also projected for the back half of the order, meaning Jax probably only gets two shots at them.
Still, Jax has more than enough in his favor here.
Picks: C.Sale Over 7.5 -115, 0.58u | Bet to -130, T.Bradley Over 5.5 -135, 0.68u | Bet to -155, P.Lambert Over 4.5 -115, 0.58u | Bet to -130, G.Williams Over 7.5 -105, 1.05u | Bet to -155, G.Jax Over 5.5 +109, 0.5u | Bet to 100
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 8
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