We've got an electric all-day slate of Major League Baseball on tap today.
Our staff of baseball bettors has expert picks for Braves vs Yankees at 3:05 PM ET (Yankee Stadium), Blue Jays vs Phillies at 6:05 PM ET (Citizens Bank Park), and Rays vs Mariners at 9:50 PM ET (T-Mobile Park).
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:05 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:50 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Braves vs Yankees Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
The Atlanta Braves hand the ball to left-hander Chris Sale, who is almost always a reliable candidate to back. Once again in the NL Cy Young conversation, Sale is 12-6 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP through 20 starts this year.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Sale ranks in the top quarter of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against the New York Yankees. In their most recent meeting, Sale allowed just one run on one hit across five innings en route to an 8-1 victory.
New York has had an incredibly difficult time against Sale. In 32 combined plate appearances against the southpaw, the current Yankees roster owns a .138 batting average, a .172 slugging percentage and a .187 weighted on-base average.
itting has been an issue all year for New York, as they rank 26th in hits per game, 28th in batting average and 24th in on-base percentage. The Yankees have relied on the long ball for run production, with some success.
However, that is not a reliable way to generate offense against Sale, who limits hard contact at an elite rate. The clear hitting advantage goes to Atlanta, which ranks ahead of the Yankees in nearly every major offensive category.
That leaves the pitching matchup, which is another advantage for the road team. Right-hander Gerrit Cole takes the mound for New York, and he trails Sale in ERA, WHIP, xERA and xBA.
Cole’s underlying metrics this season are also concerning, particularly the type of contact he is allowing. The 35-year-old ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That is a dangerous trend against an Atlanta lineup that ranks in the top seven in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Pick: Braves ML (-150 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Athletics vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Not only has Boston won 31 of 36 games, but it has also won 22 of them by two-plus runs.
Given the injured state of this Athletics roster and Boston's dominance, I see them winning by multiple runs again.
Give me the Red Sox to crush the Athletics on Saturday and bring home the run-line bet.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-130 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Blue Jays vs Phillies Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Max Scherzer, on loan from the IL, has allowed just two runs over 8.2 innings, while striking out nine of 38 batters and walking four. He’s allowed just one barrel on a 36 HardHit% and is even generating 48% of his contact on the ground since returning, though there have been no pitch usage alterations that might have caused that.
The bad news is that he had just an 8.8 SwStr% and six of those innings were against the slumbering Cardinals.
Scherzer’s best and only estimator below 5 for the season is a 4.63 Bot ERA that coexists with a 93 Pitching+.
In 30.2 overall innings, LHBs have a .442 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against him this year.
Four Phillies have a wRC+ above 100 against RHP this year, and they are all left-handed, all also ranging from 118 (Brandon Marsh) to 166 (Bryce Harper).
If Scherzer doesn’t plan on keeping the ball on the ground, and I don’t see any reason why he would, this is a very dangerous spot for him.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has a 4.37 ERA over his last six starts, and hey, it’s a full run better than his 5.55 ERA on the season.
Home runs are his problem and why he may never pitch to his non-FIP estimators with nine of 10 barrels still leaving the park during this stretch and 28 of 36 on the year, but he’s significantly increased his changeup usage from below 15% to 24.2% in these starts and has improved his pitch modeling to a 3.44 Bot ERA and 109 Pitching+, partially because of that pitch grading better than it was before, along with his fastball (the curveball has always been elite).
The Dodgers are the only team to score more than three runs against him over this span.
I don’t know if anyone even cares what’s wrong with the Toronto offense anymore, but BARTOLO’s projected nine average an 86 wRC+ on the road, 99 wRC+ vs RHP, and 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Blue Jays are playing out the string.
I have Nola about four-fifths of a run superior to Scherzer and the Philadelphia offense 15 points of wRC+ better. That certainly makes up for a 20 FRV deficit.
Via last 30-day bullpen estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), the Blue Jays have been a quarter run better over the last month.
However, the Phillies have made some moves to improve their unit (Brooks Raley, Caleb Killian), while the Blue Jays have subtracted (Jeff Hoffman).
Leaning on BARTOLO rankings, which put the Phillies 10 spots and one-third of a run better than the Blue Jays, would make more sense here.
Pick: Phillies ML (-185 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's Orioles vs Rangers Best Bet
I'm taking the Orioles ML over the Rangers.
This is a fade of Jacob deGrom, who has quietly been underwhelming for a while now. In his past 13 starts, deGrom has a 4.83 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with a 1.30 HR/9 in 69 innings. He's gone five innings or fewer in four consecutive outings, giving up five earned runs in two of his last three turns.
With Nathan Eovaldi only going 5.1 innings on Friday, the Rangers deployed their high-leverage relievers, namely Jacob Latz, who went two innings for the save. This means that he's likely unavailable for this one.
Meanwhile, Shane Baz went eight innings for the Orioles, so they didn't use their bullpen at all. While Kyle Bradish has been inconsistent, he's shown a high ceiling, with eight starts this season allowing one or fewer earned runs.
Considering these circumstances, we're getting an appealing price on the Orioles here.
Pick: Orioles ML (+110 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Rays vs Mariners Best Bet
By Sean Paul
I project some value on the Under in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the live data I use to project games each day.
Below is just a snippet of what you can get with BARTOLO:
Pick: Under 7 (-105 or Better)
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