The Philadelphia Phillies host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 8, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +140 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Phillies Pick: Phillies (F5) -156, 0.62u | Bet to -180, Phillies -150, 0.9u | Bet to -185
My Blue Jays vs Phillies best bet is on the Philadelphia F5 moneyline and game moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 9.5 -118o / -102u | +140 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -151 | 9.5 -118o / -102u | -156 |
- Blue Jays vs Phillies moneyline: Blue Jays +140, Phillies -156
- Blue Jays vs Phillies over/under: 9.5 (-118o / -102u)
- Blue Jays vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+125 ), Blue Jays +1.5 (-151)
Blue Jays vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Max Scherzer (TOR) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 3-9 |
| -0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 7.92/5.44 | ERA / xERA | 5.55/4.32 |
| 6.97/5.59 | FIP / xFIP | 5.16/4.00 |
| 5.7% | K-BB% | 15.3% |
| 35.6% | GB% | 39.7% |
| .283 | BABIP | .314 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Max Scherzer, on loan from the IL, has allowed just two runs over 8.2 innings, while striking out nine of 38 batters and walking four. He’s allowed just one barrel on a 36 HardHit% and is even generating 48% of his contact on the ground since returning, though there have been no pitch usage alterations that might have caused that.
The bad news is that he had just an 8.8 SwStr% and six of those innings were against the slumbering Cardinals.
Scherzer’s best and only estimator below 5 for the season is a 4.63 Bot ERA that coexists with a 93 Pitching+.
In 30.2 overall innings, LHBs have a .442 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against him this year.
Four Phillies have a wRC+ above 100 against RHP this year, and they are all left-handed, all also ranging from 118 (Brandon Marsh) to 166 (Bryce Harper).
If Scherzer doesn’t plan on keeping the ball on the ground, and I don’t see any reason why he would, this is a very dangerous spot for him.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has a 4.37 ERA over his last six starts, and hey, it’s a full run better than his 5.55 ERA on the season.
Home runs are his problem and why he may never pitch to his non-FIP estimators with nine of 10 barrels still leaving the park during this stretch and 28 of 36 on the year, but he’s significantly increased his changeup usage from below 15% to 24.2% in these starts and has improved his pitch modeling to a 3.44 Bot ERA and 109 Pitching+, partially because of that pitch grading better than it was before, along with his fastball (the curveball has always been elite).
The Dodgers are the only team to score more than three runs against him over this span.
I don’t know if anyone even cares what’s wrong with the Toronto offense anymore, but BARTOLO’s projected nine average an 86 wRC+ on the road, 99 wRC+ vs RHP and 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Blue Jays are playing out the string.
I have Nola about four-fifths of a run superior to Scherzer and the Philadelphia offense 15 points of wRC+ better. That certainly makes up for a 20 FRV deficit.
Via last 30-day bullpen estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), the Blue Jays have been a quarter run better over the last month.
However, the Phillies have made some moves to improve their unit (Brooks Raley, Caleb Killian), while the Blue Jays have subtracted (Jeff Hoffman).
Leaning on BARTOLO rankings, which put the Phillies 10 spots and one-third of a run better than the Blue Jays, would make more sense here.
Only showing about 1.5 percentage points of difference in value, I’m going to split a unit to win 0.6/0.4 between full game and F5.
Picks: Phillies (F5) -156, 0.62u | Bet to -180, Phillies -150, 0.9u | Bet to -185
