The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds on August 8, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Reds are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +131 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Nationals Prediction
- Reds vs Nationals Pick: Nationals ML (+131)
My Reds vs Nationals best bet is on Washington to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Nationals Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8.5 -113o / -107u | -140 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -136 | 8.5 -113o / -107u | +131 |
- Reds vs Nationals moneyline: Reds -140, Nationals +131
- Reds vs Nationals over/under: 8.5 (-113o / -107u)
- Reds vs Nationals spread: Reds -1.5 (+113), Nationals +1.5 (-136)
Reds vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| Chase Burns (RHP, CIN) | Stat | Andrew Alvarez (LHP, WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.35 / 3.19 | ERA / xERA | 3.94 / 4.55 |
| 3.32 / 3.55 | FIP / xFIP | 3.12 / 3.71 |
| 19.7 | K-BB% | 11.6 |
| 36.2 | GB% | 51.7 |
| .261 | BABIP | .339 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 99 |
Reds vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
Despite striking out nine Pirates in his last start, Reds starter Chase Burns still has just a 22.7 K%, 10 K-BB%, and 11.4 SwStr% over his last five starts, in contrast to his 28.7 K%, 19.7 K-BB%, and 14.3 SwStr% on the season.
Not many people may have noticed the difference because he’s only allowed 11 runs over those 27 innings, while four of them have been unearned. Also, just one-third of his barrels have left the yard with a .221 BABIP during this stretch. Not many barrels remain in the park in Cincinnati.
Burns will pass last year’s innings total and career high as a professional in the second inning here, and while he averaged a 98 mph fastball over his first 11 starts and 97.5 over his next seven, he hasn’t had even a 97 mph average over any of his last three starts.
He’s also throwing fastballs and sliders 95% of the time. The fastball now has a 6.9 SwStr% on the season, nearly half of last year’s 11.8% mark at the major league level. The league may be catching up and sitting on it.
I’m not concerned long-term about Burns, but in the short term, maybe he needs a bit of a break, and he’ll eventually have to learn another pitch.
Regardless, I’m still projecting him as a three-and-a-half true talent (for now), which aligns very closely with a 3.55 SIERA and 3.56 xFIP on the season, despite his 2.35 ERA.
A Washington projected lineup without Woods and Garcia Jr. still averages a 100 wRC+ against RHP and 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
While the Cincinnati defense is a bit above average on a team level, they’re sitting at -4 FRV via BARTOLO’s projected nine on Saturday.
Andrew Alvarez has pitched to a 3.91 ERA with a 4.49 xERA, 4.00 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% since his first start, but with a 51.5 GB% and just five total barrels (3.6%).
I have him somewhere between those two marks for the season, about two-thirds of a run worse than Burns.
However, a Cincinnati projected lineup that averages 99 wRC+ against RHP and 98 wRC+ over the last month is just a little bit worse than Washington's. I only have a gap of 6 points in wRC+ for this game.
And while the Nationals have a poor defense on the season, they’ve been able to upgrade their defense to 10 FRV for Saturday, an 18 FRV edge on the projected Cincinnati defense.
Reds vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Neither bullpen is very good, and I want no part of Washington’s unit, which is why I’m thankful I’m showing a clear value gap in favor of the better F5 number.
One other generally small edge in a single game: the Nationals project 10 BRR (Base Running Runs) ahead of the Reds. Add up all the smaller edges (defense, offense, home field), and I have this one nearly a coin flip.
I’d play this to +110, but drop to 0.5u below +120.
Picks: Nationals +131, 1u (DraftKings | Bet to +110)
