The Action Network has been tracking the odds of who will become the next James Bond for the last four years. It has been nearly five years since Daniel Craig's final outing as 007 in No Time to Die, and the search for his successor has taken on a life of its own – running alongside the franchise's biggest shake-up in decades, after Amazon MGM Studios took over creative control from longtime producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. Denis Villeneuve is confirmed to direct, however, betting markets have swung between a rotating cast of contenders over the years, from Rege-Jean Page and Henry Cavill to Theo James.
According to the latest update and an odds average based on various bookmakers, here is where the race currently stands.
Polymarket current offers a market on the next James Bond actor. With over a million in trading volume, it's generating a lot of interest amongst traders.
If you haven't signed up, take a look at our Polymarket promo code before you do.
1. Callum Turner
- Bond Odds: +146, Implied Probability: 40.68%
Turner is the current favorite, a position he first reached in the odds tracking in September of last year. He has been briefly overtaken since by both Anthony Boyle and Jacob Elordi, but he is now back on top. Best known for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Masters of the Air, Turner is currently filming the Possession remake alongside Margaret Qualley.
2. Tom Francis
- Bond Odds: +333, Implied Probability: 23.08%
Francis is a newer name in the odds, entering the tracking after it was reported he had auditioned for the role of Bond. He won the 2024 Olivier Award for Best Actor in a Musical for his performance in Sunset Boulevard, opposite Nicole Scherzinger, and made his screen debut in Netflix's You.
3. Louis Partridge
- Bond Odds: +455, Implied Probability: 18%
Partridge is known for all three Enola Holmes films and, more recently, House of Guinness. If cast, he would be the youngest actor ever to play Bond, surpassing Sean Connery.
4. Harris Dickinson
- Bond Odds: +500, Implied Probability: 16.67%
Dickinson has appeared in the odds tracking since 2023 and reached as high as No. 2 earlier this year. He is currently in production on Sam Mendes' four-part Beatles biopic movies, in which he plays John Lennon.
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson
- Bond Odds: +567, Implied Probability: 15%
Taylor-Johnson held the No. 1 spot in the tracking for longer than any other actor and was widely reported to be close to landing the role before Amazon's restructuring of the franchise reopened the search.
Rounding out the top 10 are Jack Lowden, Jacob Elordi, Arty Froushan, Donal Finn, and Leo Suter – a mix of rising and established names that continue to draw bookmaker attention even without confirmation of an official shortlist.
To explore how the Bond odds have shifted over time, The Action Network has built an interactive graphic tracking the full history of the race. You can search for any actor from the dropdown menu to see their individual odds trajectory, or view the complete field to see how the favorites have changed since the tracking started in 2022.
Kalshi currently offers multiple markets for the upcoming James Bond movie. If you are interested in prediction markets, you can also have a look at our Kalshi Promo Code.
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative & editorial purposes only.
FAQs: James Bond Odds
Who is the favorite to replace Daniel Craig as James Bond?
Callum Turner leads the odds at +146, giving him a 40.68% implied probability of landing the role. He first took over the No. 1 spot in the tracking last September and has reclaimed it after brief stretches at the top for Anthony Boyle and Jacob Elordi.
How is the betting field shaping up behind Turner?
Tom Francis sits second at +333 (23.08%), followed by Louis Partridge at +455 (18%), Harris Dickinson at +500 (16.67%) and Aaron Taylor-Johnson at +567 (15%). Jack Lowden, Jacob Elordi, Arty Froushan, Donal Finn and Leo Suter round out the top 10.
What do these odds and implied probabilities actually mean?
The odds reflect an average pulled from multiple bookmakers rather than a single sportsbook's line. Implied probability converts those odds into a percentage chance, so Turner's +146 translates to a 40.68% likelihood based on current market pricing.
Has anyone actually been cast as Bond?
No. There's no confirmed casting or official shortlist. The odds move based on reported auditions, casting rumors and industry chatter, which is why names like Tom Francis (a newer addition after reports of his audition) can appear and climb quickly.
Why is this casting search taking so long?
It's been nearly five years since Daniel Craig's last appearance as 007 in "No Time to Die." The delay runs alongside Amazon MGM Studios taking over creative control of the franchise from longtime producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson, the biggest behind-the-scenes shift in decades. Denis Villeneuve is confirmed to direct.
Has the betting favorite changed much over the years?
Yes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson held the No. 1 spot longer than any other actor and was widely reported to be close to landing the role before Amazon's restructuring reopened the search. Rege-Jean Page, Henry Cavill and Theo James have also spent time near the top since tracking began in 2022.
Where can I see how the odds have changed over time?
Action Network has built an interactive graphic tracking the full betting history since 2022. You can search any actor by name to see their individual odds trajectory or view the whole field to track how the favorites have shifted.
