Phillies vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - June 26, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Hunter Brown is enjoying a breakout year with a career-high 31.6% strikeout rate and currently sits 3rd in AL Cy Young odds. My expected K model supports the idea that this is a career year as he’s sporting a personal-best 28% whiff rate and has improved in several key underlying metrics. That said, there’s one red flag: opposing hitters are swinging at just 60% of his pitches in the zone, a career low. That’s a level very few pitchers can sustain long-term and Brown was right around league average in that stat during his first three seasons, so I expect that number to regress. If hitters start swinging more at those in-zone pitches, his strikeout rate should dip slightly. The Phillies could accelerate that regression. They swing at pitches in the zone at the 11th-highest rate in MLB and rank top-6 in whiff rate against both four-seamers and sinkers which are the two pitches Brown throws over 60% of the time. That could limit his ability to get to two-strike counts and use his devastating knuckle curve (38% whiff rate) as much as he normally does. Philly’s most strikeout-prone bat is Brandon Marsh (38% K probability in his first PA), but he’s buried in the 9-hole and likely only gets two looks against Brown. This sets up as a spot where Brown could still pitch well but land right on 6 Ks more often than not. I have the fair price for the under closer to -140

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Good teams under Overall: 267-163-22,62% (ROI:19%) Season:15-13-1,54% (ROI:2%)

Bet to -105