Red Sox vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - March 31, 2026

Similar cap as Lopez here, where any sort of Opening Day pitch limit hurts him more than the average pitcher. His K% has historically held steady the second and third time through the order, while most pitchers see a sharp drop each time through. So facing fewer hitters impacts him more than most SPs. Lance saw a big drop in K rate last season, which wasn’t surprising after missing 2+ years, and it’s still unclear where he’s at. He was tinkering with his approach during spring, so it’s hard to know what was just experimentation versus what will carry over, but his K rate dipped to 15.6%, which isn’t ideal. From a workload standpoint, there are questions too. He topped out at just 58 pitches in his final spring start back on March 17, so it’s tough to project him fully stretched out here. I’d expect a relatively low pitch cap, likely enough to get through the order twice and maybe into a third time, but something like getting pulled when Roman Anthony comes up for a third plate appearance feels about right. Today is also the last slate where every pitcher is making their first start of the season. It’s always tougher to project K props without at least one real sample of current form, so there’s more uncertainty baked in here than usual. Still, his floor is low enough to justify a play. I’m projecting the under closer to -140.

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