The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 11, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Phillies are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120 or Better)
My Diamondbacks vs Phillies best bet is on the Snakes to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +116 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -134 |
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-194), Phillies -1.5 (+160)
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-115 / -105)
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies moneyline: Diamondbacks +116, Phillies -134
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) | Stat | Taijuan Walker (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 6.75 / 2.95 | ERA / xERA | 9.31 / 7.35 |
| 4.27 / 4.35 | FIP / xFIP | 7.49 / 5.02 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 2.28 |
| 4.4% | K-BB% | 1.9% |
| 59.5% | GB% | 48.8% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks rode high after winning back-to-back games against the Mets and stole the opener against the Phillies.
Two of the eight wins came in games started by Brandon Pfaadt, though he didn't secure a win in either game.
You could say Pfaadt was unlucky in his first two outings. He has a 6.75 ERA, but boasts a strong 2.95 xERA and a 4.27 FIP. The positive regression for Pfaadt could be real.
He was terrible last year, but he spent the off-season refining his pitch mix and is leaning on a sinker and cutter and is now generating groundballs at a 59% rate — up from 42% last year. He threw four-seamers 23% of the time last year, and it's down to just 7% now.
I'm buying some stock in the Pfaadt turnaround.
It's only a matter of time until the Diamondbacks offense erupts. They boast an 85 wRC+, which ranks 24th among MLB lineups, and have also hit just eight home runs. However, they rank third with a 35.6% hard-hit rate and just 25th in ground-ball rate.
I expect a team with that batted ball data to have a more potent offense.
Corbin Caroll is one of two Diamondback hitters with a wRC+ above 100, checking in at 196. The other is Gabriel Moreno with a 112 wRC+.
I think Ketel Marte is close to hitting his stride. The All-Star infielder is off to an unlucky start, hitting .185, but his xBA is .285. That encapsulates the Diamondbacks ' early-season hitting woes.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies have now lost three straight games and four of their last five games to fall to 6-7.
Taijuan Walker will have to be the savior for Philadelphia, but that isn't a good thing. Walker is off to another horrible start, posting a 9.31 ERA with a 7.35 xERA and a 7.39 FIP in outings against the Rockies and Nationals.
He doesn't miss bats, striking out 5.59 batters per nine, walking 4.66 per nine, and giving up 2.79 homers per nine. I don't expect the HR/9 to remain that bad, but he gave up 2.58 homers per nine two seasons ago, so anything is possible for Walker.
The Phillies have also struggled on the offensive end. They rank 22nd among MLB lineups with an 89 wRC+ and 27th in hard-hit rate. They also sport a 9.2% walk rate (19th) and a 21.8% strikeout rate (19th).
Talent-wise, the Phillies should be better, but the results don't inspire much optimism. Five Philadelphia players have a wRC+ better than 100, but four of the five range from 101 to 113. The only hitter better is Kyle Schwarber with a 145 wRC, with most of his damage coming from a .389 OBP.
Trea Turner, Bryson Stott, and Alec Bohm have all been terrible for the Phillies' offense. Turner has an 87 wRC+, Bohm has a 61 wRC+, and Stott has a woeful 16 wRC+. That drags down what this lineup aspires to be.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Picks
I'm taking the Diamondbacks.
Fading Walker is easy. I don't expect him to draw many more starts for a contending Phillies team if he continues to post some of the ugly numbers he's posting.
I get the Phillies are at home, but there's a real gap between these two, and Pfaadt is significantly better than Walker.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120 or Better)
