Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hitting Two Dogs, One Total
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys swept the board yesterday, cashing all three of their sharp contrarian Unders (Phillies-Marlins, Yankees-Astros and Dodgers-Dbacks). Pro players are extra selective when it comes to totals. As a result, all the sharp total boxes must be checked off: percentages, line movement, bet signals, umps and wind.
After analyzing Thursday’s slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 3:40, 10:07 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 1:45 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Dodgers – Arizona Diamondbacks Under 7
3:40 p.m. ET
Wiseguys cashed their Dodgers-Dbacks Under last night and are going back to the Under well this afternoon. Currently, 65% of bets are on the Over, yet the total has fallen from 7.5 to 7. It’s always a good sign when the total gets worse but sharps still pound it (an indication of supreme confidence, despite missing the hook). The Under is also getting more money (48%) than bets (35%), another sign that sharps expect a low-scoring game.
Baltimore Orioles (+157) at Los Angeles Angels
10:07 p.m. ET
The public wants nothing to do with the Orioles (8-22, -12.12 units), but sharp bettors see a profitable buy-low opportunity. Baltimore is getting only 25% of bets, yet the O’s have fallen from +160 to +155. Why would the oddsmakers drop the Birds’ payout if the vast majority of bets are on the Angels? Because sharps got down hard on Baltimore, creating big liability. Wiseguys at The Greek steamed Orioles +168 and then Goodfellas crushed the O’s +175. Baltimore is also the top bets vs. dollars discrepancy play of the day (24% bets, 70% dollars). This means Average Joes are on the Angels, but big money pros are on the Orioles.
Baltimore also fits a highly profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Betting Against a Good Team (+122.17 units since 2005).
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (+102)
10:10 p.m. ET
Recreational bettors see Sean Manaea (1.03 ERA) going head-to-head with Wade LeBlanc (4.61 ERA) and, naturally, they’re siding with Oakland and their ace recently off a no-hitter. Not the sharps. Despite receiving 65% of bets, Oakland has fallen from -145 to -112, indicating sharp reverse line movement on the home dog. Wiseguys at Pinnacle steamed Seattle +110 and then sharps at CRIS hit Seattle +105. The Mariners also enjoy a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy. They’re getting only 35% of bets but 62% of dollars, another indication that smart money is on their side.
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Pictured: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Sean Manaea (55) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros