Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Picks, Prediction: Is Road Side Undervalued?

Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Picks, Prediction: Is Road Side Undervalued? article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: José Urquidy.

  • The Houston Astros are a short road underdog against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night as two of the American League favorites go toe-to-toe.
  • Tony Sartori believes the Astros are a bit undervalued in this spot, especially with all the market love for the Blue Jays.
  • Get his full Astros vs. Blue Jays pick and preview below.

Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds

Astros Odds+105
Blue Jays Odds-125
Over/Under8.5 (-110/-110)
Time7:07 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM, updated Friday at 3:45 p.m. ET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of a three-game set between the American League West's Houston Astros and AL East's Toronto Blue Jays. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the Blue Jays won two of the first three matchups.

Will Toronto continue its winning ways against Houston, or can the Astros pull off the road upset?

Houston: Astros Have Played Well on the Road 

The Houston Astros enter this contest following Thursday's 3-2 win over the Texas Rangers. That win capped off a great series for Houston as it won three of the four games against the Rangers.

Right-handed pitcher Jose Urquidy is the projected starter for the Astros in this contest. Urquidy has gotten off to a rough start this season as he is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.364 WHIP through 14 2/3 innings pitched.

However, Urquidy had a good performance against the Blue Jays earlier this yeah when he yielded two runs over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision. Even if Urquidy has to get pulled early, I trust Houston's bullpen to pick up the slack.

This season, Houston's relief pitching ranks seventh in the league in ERA and ninth in FIP. The Astros' pitching staff should also get a good amount of run support in this game as the Blue Jays send left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi to the mound.

Through 169 career plate appearances against Kikuchi, this current Astros roster possesses a .270 xBA, .519 xSLG and .385 xwOBA. While we may be getting some value in Houston because it's playing on the road, the Astros are 8-5 thus far this year when traveling.

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Toronto Blue Jays: Kikuchi has Struggled Against Astros

The Toronto Blue Jays also enter this series in good form as they took two of three games against the Boston Red Sox. As I mentioned above, left-hander Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher in this game and could be a good fade candidate.

Through three starts this season, Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in 12 innings pitched. In his one start against Houston, Kikuchi gave up two earned runs over 3 2/3 innings pitched.

That game was the Blue Jays' one loss to Houston this season, a result I expect to see once again in this game. An important note to monitor in this game is the status of superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who missed Thursday's matchup against the Red Sox with a foot injury.

I do expect Guerrero Jr. to return to the lineup against Houston, however, if he does not, then that is an added benefit to backing the Astros in this game. Even if he does go, I still like Houston to get the job done against Kikuchi and Toronto.

Astros-Blue Jays Pick

As a short home favorite, I expect the public to be all over Toronto, which makes me like Houston even more. These two teams are very even and each game in the first series was decided by a single run and I expect similar results in this series as well.

That being said, I think Houston can start the series off on a strong note with a win as the road underdog.

Pick: Houston Astros ML (+100) | Play to (-110)

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