The Kansas City Royals host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 5, 2026. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Royals are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Phillies vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Royals Prediction
- Phillies vs Royals Pick: Over 9.5 (-120)
Our Phillies vs Royals best bet is Over 9.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Royals Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9.5 -120o / -102u | -136 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9.5 -120o / -102u | +116 |
- Phillies vs Royals moneyline: Phillies -136, Royals +116
- Phillies vs Royals over/under: 9.5 (-120o / -102u)
- Phillies vs Royals spread: Phillies -1.5 (+114), Royals +1.5 (-137)
Phillies vs Royals Probable Pitchers
| Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) | Stat | Luinder Avila (RHP, KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 6.04 / 4.49 | ERA / xERA | 5.40 / 4.60 |
| 5.03 / 4.01 | FIP / xFIP | 4.65 / 4.95 |
| 15.4 | K-BB% | 6.3 |
| 39.8 | GB% | 43.9 |
| .328 | BABIP | .339 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 88 |
Phillies vs Royals MLB Betting Preview
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the total for today, picking the over as the best choice.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Phillies vs Royals Pick, Betting Analysis
With two starting pitchers flashing ERAs well north of 5.00, high WHIPs and highly potent offenses on both sides, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring shootout.
Aaron Nola is not the pitcher he used to be. This is his second consecutive season with an ERA over 6.00, and while the Royals rank 24th overall in wRC+ (92) this season, their splits at Kauffman Stadium are way better, ranking 16th in wRC+ at home with 100.
Meanwhile, Philly features one of the best lineups in baseball, led by Kyle Schwarber (who is leading the majors with 30 home runs), Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. They rank seventh in ISO in MLB with .168.
Plus, Royals SP Luinder Avila's propensity to walk batters means he will likely put runners on base for these dangerous Phillies bats to take advantage of.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-120, FanDuel)
