Astros vs Phillies World Series Game 4 Parlay
Steve Boyle/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Fans cheer during Game 3 of the World Series.
Astros vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-102 / -120)|
|Time||8:03 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Fresh off what appeared to be Home Run Derby on Tuesday night, the Phillies and Astros are back in action on Wednesday, with a pitching matchup between two analytics darlings in Aaron Nola and Cristian Javier.
Unless either pitcher is tipping off their game like Lance McCullers Jr. was last night, expect runs to be at far more of a premium. In that vein, here’s the same-game parlay for Game 4.
The Parlay (+707):
- Under 7.5 total runs (-124)
- No run third inning (-154)
- First half winning margin: Tie (+410)
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Same-Game Parlay – Astros vs. Phillies Game 4
Under 7.5 Total Runs
There are a few reasons to like this leg of the SGP. For one, as noted above, Javier and Nola are two of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, by just about every metric possible, these were two of the true elite in 2022.
Among starting pitchers, the two both ranked in the top eight in all of baseball in xwOBA allowed, per Baseball Savant. They both ranked in the top 16 by Eno Sarris’ pitching plus. By xERA, they were second and seventh; strikeout minus walk rate: both top eight again … It goes on and on.
Add in that both pitchers are righty and that both teams hit lefties better. There’s also the fact that we are fresh off a blowout in Game 3 and two days off before that, and both bullpens will be ready at the drop of a hat to go to their absolute best and brightest.
This is the leg of the SGP I am most confident of, and a best bet on its own if you haven’t made it already.
No Runs – Third Inning
If you’ve read my articles before, you know I love playing around with the No Run Inning bets. The most famous of these is the No Run First Inning, but based on lineup construction, value can be found in some of the other innings at times, especially since they are part of the SGP offerings at FanDuel.
The logic here is that both of these lineups are scariest at their core. That makes sense, all lineups are, but with these two, it’s particularly true. If you are making a bet that involves runs not scoring, avoiding Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper is a must. The third inning is the best bet to do that. If both pitchers are cruising (and if they aren’t, our first leg may be in trouble anyway), they should see the bottom of the lineup, with maybe a bit of rollover to the top.
Both lineups have a very weak bottom three right now, with either Jean Segura or Brandon Marsh being the scariest of the bunch. If the Phillies get back around to Kyle Schwarber, there’s a bit of worry there, but this is about as safe an inning to pick as you are going to find, and the price isn’t even all that crazy. Solid leg to add to the SGP.
1st Half Winning Margin: Tie
Originally, I had this leg as: Either team to win by 1 run or less, but I zagged at the last second. There’s just more value in this bet.
I like the either team to win by 1 run or less play, it fits into this script we have here pretty well, but at only +190, the implied odds were just a bit too low.
Instead, we get another play that fits this script really well, and it jolts the SGP from +413 to +707.
This is obviously the least likely leg of the SGP to hit, but I see value in the +410 individual implied odds of this leg, and that’s even before we get to adding it to a script that all runs together smoothly.
If you want to play it safer, that Either team to win by 1 run or less is out there still, but I see far more value including this 1st half winning margin leg.