Astros vs Rangers MLB Playoffs Odds, Pick, Prediction for ALCS Game 4
Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Urquidy and Andrew Heaney.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers odds for Game 4 have the Rangers as short home favorites at -120 on the moneyline. The Astros are underdogs at +102.
The total is 9.5 with the over and under both juiced to -110. On the spread, Astros +1.5 is -200, while the Rangers -1.5 is +164.
The Astros are back in contention in the ALCS, having taken Game 3 on the road in commanding fashion Wednesday night. The job is only half-finished, however, with Texas still holding control of home-field advantage up 2-1 in the best-of-seven.
Will the Rangers capitalize on a favorable pitching matchup on Thursday night and get back on track, or will we head to a pivotal Game 5 with the series all knotted up?
Let's break it down with a Rangers vs. Astros Game 4 pick, preview and prediction.
Astros vs. Rangers ALCS Game 4 Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +102 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
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Down 2-1 in the series, it wouldn't have been a shocker for the Houston Astros to fire up Game 1 starter Justin Verlander on short rest. Instead, they've decided to go with Jose Urquidy after the right-hander hung tough in Game 4 of the ALDS to help the Astros close out the series in Minnesota.
The move is certainly not one I would make. We only saw Urquidy for a grand total of 63 innings in 2023 thanks to a mid-season shoulder injury, but in the starts he made he was largely the same guy we've seen for the last four years.
The 28-year-old pitches to fly balls and few strikeouts, making life very difficult any time he runs into a team that can sock 'em out of the park. His hard-hit and barrel rates improved marginally, but with even fewer strikeouts and an influx of walks compared to the past, Urquidy's ERA was a career-worst 5.29 and his xERA a poor 4.70.
The sample size is limited, but it's also worth noting that the Rangers have hit Urquidy well throughout his career. Their lineup has produced an excellent .271 xBA and .546 xSLG against Urquidy in his career and have clubbed seven homers in 85 trips to the plate.
The Rangers will counter with Andrew Heaney, whose career to this point has been a failure. Once ticketed for big things after being drafted ninth overall by the Marlins in 2012, the big lefty has never quite figured out how to avoid the gopher ball.
He's allowed 20 or more home runs in four of the past five seasons, not counting his abbreviated COVID season, and while he seemed to revive his career at age 31 last season with the Dodgers, it appears he's reverted back to his old self.
Things seemed to get better for Heaney as the season wore on in Texas. After allowing 19 round-trippers through his first four months, Heaney allowed just four in the final two months of the year, as his xBA sunk to .243 in July, .235 in August and .212 in September.
It seemed to be directly tied to his increasing ground-ball rate, as his hard-hit rate remained consistent along with his strikeout numbers.
I do want to point out here that the Rangers' offense has not only ranked second this postseason in OPS after the red-hot Phillies, but they've hit even more fly balls than normal. Texas' ground out-to-air out ratio is an extremely low 0.50 after ranking third in that category all year with a ratio of 0.82.
Astros vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's not as if the Astros aren't hitting a ton of fly balls — they have also had an excellent ground out-to-air out ratio of 0.68 throughout the playoffs — but they simply haven't packed as big of a punch as the Rangers have. They've hit four fewer home runs in one fewer game than Texas, and they've also been off their game with a minuscule 6.9% walk rate through seven contests.
This is going to be a home run-hitting contest, and I'm going to back the Rangers, especially when you consider the matchup.
Heaney has done a great job over the last few months of getting the ball to come back on the ground, and that translated very well in his start against the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALDS when he spun 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball. In that start, he surrendered only a single and a double, rolling up six of his 14 batted outs on the ground.
Heaney's also been effective in a rather large sampling of appearances against Houston's offense. While it's .272 lifetime off of Heaney, the lefty owns a better .241 xBA and solid .443 xSLG in those matchups.
The Rangers were fifth in home runs per plate appearance this season and one of the best around in converting fly balls to home runs. Urquidy is simply not a good pitcher, and I expect him to allow more home runs than Heaney, which should cost the Astros this game.
Even if we only see these two starters for a combined six innings, the margin should be enough for the Rangers to hang on. Their bullpen has actually been better than Houston's during the postseason and they should have a ground-ball specialist in Dane Dunning ready to go behind Heaney.
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