The Miami Marlins (58-57) and Atlanta Braves (69-45) meet tonight, with the game set to start at 7:15 p.m. EDT at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga. The game will be broadcast live on MIAM and can be traded on Polymarket.
The Braves are favored by -1.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 9. The Braves are the preferred trading option, while the Marlins will be looking to pull off an upset.
Let's get into my Marlins vs. Braves predictions and picks.
Marlins vs. Braves Predictions, Odds
Marlins vs. Braves Pick
Marlins vs. Braves Pick: Marlins ML
Marlins vs. Braves Prediction
Janson Junk has a better SIERA (4.43 to 4.58) and xERA (4.04 to 4.42) than Martin Perez, yet the latter has a far better ERA (3.24 to 4.58) because their BABIPs differ by 62 points and their strand rates differ by 11.1 percentage points, both in favor of Perez.
Junk’s K-BB% is 2.6 points higher, which is essentially the difference and why I have him about a quarter-run ahead of Perez.
With both projected lineups averaging a 112 wRC+ against RHP, the Miami projected defense having a 9 FRV edge and also an 11 BRR advantage on the bases, the biggest Atlanta edge would seem to be a bullpen BARTOLO ranks seven spots ahead of the Marlins, though that’s still only 0.16 runs by wFIP.
We could bypass that bullpen edge by playing an F5, but the full-game price (+140) is so much better.
This one was short and to the point, but it’s all in the numbers presented.
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Trade: Marlins ML
