The Atlanta Braves host the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, July 6, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 11:35 a.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Braves will try to avoid the sweep in the first game of Sunday's MLB slate. Atlanta enters as a -160 moneyline favorite with the game total set at 9.
Find my Orioles vs Braves prediction in my Sunday MLB betting preview below.
My Orioles vs Braves Prediction
- Orioles vs Braves pick: Orioles Moneyline (play to +110)
My Orioles vs Braves best bet is the Orioles moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Braves Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 9 +100o / -120u | +135 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 +100o / -120u | -160 |
Orioles vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | Grant Holmes (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.05/3.21 | ERA /xERA | 3.47/3.97 |
| 3.00/3.82 | FIP / xFIP | 4.16/3.67 |
| 0.86 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 3.0 | K-BB% | 2.5 |
| 45.9% | GB% | 45.4% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Orioles vs Braves Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Jolly Rogers
In the Orioles' never-ending quest for consistent innings, they may have found a reliable arm, and they'll need a strong performance here to lock down a sweep.
Trevor Rogers has done brilliantly since coming up from the minor leagues, pitching to a pristine 2.05 ERA with a 3.21 xERA and 3.00 FIP. The left-hander whom the Orioles snared at last year's trade deadline looked like a lost cause after not making the Big League team from Spring Training.
It's crazy how one off-season can change things. Rogers is throwing a whole mile and a half harder than he used to and he cut his walk rate from 4.05 to 2.45. I think Rogers can maintain an ERA around the low to mid-3s if he continues to limit the walks. It’s no coincidence that Rogers had his worst outing when he walked three batters and looked dominant in the two outings with no walks.
The Orioles' offense is built to hammer right-handed pitching. When a right-hander takes the mound, it allows the Orioles to insert all-star starter Ryan O'Hearn at DH and Colton Cowser in the outfield. O'Hearn hasn't hit well lately, posting an 83 wRC+ in his last 16 games.
Baltimore has a 103 wRC+ since June 15th, which ranks 15th in MLB. That's not an amazing number, but it gives me reason to buy into their offense long-term. Posting a league-average wRC+ with O'Hearn, Jackson, Holiday and Cedric Mullins performing poorly in a 16-game sample.
It needs to have a patient approach against the Braves starter.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: All K's, No Control
That starter is Grant Holmes, who needs to step up his game with the Braves' pair of aces, Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, on the injured list for the foreseeable future.
A 29-year-old longtime minor leaguer, Holmes has developed into one of MLB's premier strikeout artists. He ranks 10th in MLB with a dazzling 10.59 K/9, but the other areas of his game lag behind.
While Holmes has performed well, regression could be on the way, as Holmes has a 3.47 ERA with a 3.97 xERA and 4.16 FIP.
Striking out batters is awesome and catches headlines, but strikeouts and success aren't mutually exclusive. The problem for Holmes is that he hasn't found the right diet between strikeouts and walks, as he ranks third in MLB with a 4.22 BB/9. He's allowed 3+ walks in four of his past five outings, so the trend is becoming more concerning.
The Braves' offense is a total trainwreck — a phrase that's become all too familiar to their diehard fans.
Well, Ronald Acuna is performing like an MVP since returning, and the Braves still rank 27th with an 83 wRC+ since June 15th. Acuna and Matt Olson both have a wRC+ better than 140 in those 19 games. Nobody other than Jurickson Profar, who just returned from a steroid suspension, and Drake Baldwin, who likely won't start a day game after a night game, is hitting anything.
I just can't see the Braves doing much offensively with five hitters doing absolutely nothing. Nick Allen is an elite fielder, but the Braves can ill-afford his disastrous offense if Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Michael Harris also aren't hitting.
Orioles vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Betting against a team that's on the verge of being swept at home isn't easy. But I see a lot of value in grabbing the Orioles.
If the line were closer to even, I'd probably lean toward the Braves — but the gap between the Orioles and Braves isn't big.
The Orioles are probably just the better team at this point and Holmes is due for regression. I'll take the plus money here.
Pick: Orioles ML (play to +110)
Moneyline
I like the Orioles moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on either run line.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
