Blue Jays vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Eye the Live Underdog in Detroit (Saturday, June 11)
Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Beau Brieske (Tigers)
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-255|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Toronto Blue Jays blasted the Detroit Tigers, beating them 10-1 in Friday night’s opening game of their three-game series in Detroit.
Tigers starter Elvin Rodriguez gave up eight earned runs without completing five innings, as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette each hit a home run and a double.
Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios continued his fine recent work, going eight innings and allowing just one earned run while striking out five.
It was a completely one-sided affair for Toronto, but can it replicate that performance Saturday afternoon in Detroit?
Will Jays’ Offense Mash Against Brieske?
Tigers rookie starting pitcher Beau Brieske is 0-5 with a 4.93 ERA in eight starts so far this season. However, his last start was very encouraging. Against the New York Yankees in the Bronx, Brieske allowed just two solo home runs in six innings while striking out seven and allowing just three total hits and one walk.
For the season, his numbers are still alarming, as he has a 5.72 xFIP, 18% K%, 8% BB% and 38% ground-ball percentage. You can’t exactly trust a guy with those numbers against the Blue Jays’ offense right now, especially considering they’re coming off of a 10-run performance last night.
Still, Brieske did just have the best start of his career against another strong and heavily right-handed offense in the New York Yankees. While his ERA on the season is near 5.00, Brieske has only allowed more than three earned runs in two of his eight starts this season.
The Tigers have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues behind him, so even if Brieske only pitches about half the game, Detroit’s pitching should keep the team in the game here.
Tigers’ Offense Getting Help off IL
After striking out at least eight batters in four of his first five starts this season, Kevin Gausman has now failed to strikeout more than five batters in four of his last six starts.
Gausman’s downward trend in strikeouts culminated with his first start of less than five innings last Sunday against the Minnesota Twins. He struck out just three batters while allowing nine hits, a walk and three earned runs.
Gausman has been excellent in his last two road starts, as he struck out eight batters against the Cardinals and Rays.
The Tigers present another road matchup with strikeout upside for Gausman, as just three hitters in Detroit’s projected lineup have a K% below 20% against right-handed pitchers this season.
Gausman’s season numbers are outstanding, as he has a 3.13 xFIP, 27% K%, 2% BB% and 44% ground-ball percentage.
The Tigers’ offense got a few of their regulars back in the lineup recently, as outfielders Austin Meadows and Robbie Grossman are off the injured list now.
This allows the Tigers to move their batting order around. Grossman will take his customary leadoff spot. Meanwhile, Miguel Cabrera has moved into the No. 3 spot, followed by Meadows and struggling shortstop Javier Baez batting fifth.
The left-handed bats of Meadows and Grossman could be vital in this game, as Gausman has just a 23% K% against left-handed batters compared to a 30% K% against right-handed batters.
Blue Jays-Tigers Pick
Maybe I’m way off here, but I think the Tigers are live underdogs this afternoon. While the Blue Jays are certainly the better team (they have a deeper lineup and clearly better starting pitcher), but the Tigers aren’t exactly a pushover despite their performance last night.
Detroit’s rookie starter is coming off a promising outing and their lineup is back to full strength. Toronto’s ace Kevin Gausman is coming off perhaps his worst start of the season.
This is more of an intuitive play than a model-backed play, but I believe there’s value on the Tigers on both the spread and the moneyline.
If you’re not bold enough to back the underdog here, the Over 8.5 makes sense, too.
Pick: Tigers ML +205
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