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Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Kevin Gausman, Toronto Should Prolong New York’s Woes (Friday, August 19)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Kevin Gausman, Toronto Should Prolong New York’s Woes (Friday, August 19) article feature image

Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

  • Tonight's Blue Jays-Yankees matchup is close to a coin-flip game according to oddsmakers.
  • Toronto sends ace Kevin Gausman to the mound, while New York will counter with Jameson Taillon.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

Blue Jays Odds -115
Yankees Odds -105
Over/Under 8 (+100/-120)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Blue Jays entered the Bronx with a bang last night as they clobbered Frankie Montas and the Yankees staff on the way to a 9-2 victory. Now Toronto will turn to their ace, Kevin Gausman, as he aims to take this critical division series.

Trying to stop the bleeding tonight for the Yankees will be Jameson Taillon. Taillon has been tremendous this year as he enters with an 11-3 record and a 3.95 ERA. However, the Blue Jays offense is beginning to roll again, and his home ballpark will not do him any favors this evening.

Can the Yankees dig deep and even up this series? Or will the Blue Jays overpower them once again and send them further into their downward spiral? Let’s take a closer look to find out.

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Look For the Jays to Break Through Against Taillon

Taillon has done an exceptional job against Toronto this season. He has already faced them on four separate occasions. In all, he’s thrown 21 innings against them and allowed just five earned runs while striking out 22.

Unfortunately, while that sample size may be impressive and is certainly a testament to how well Taillon has pitched at times this year, the familiarity may cost him in this outing.

All indications point to Taillon being due for some regression as his xERA and his FIP are slightly above his season ERA of 3.95. We’ve already begun to see it in the second half, as through five starts since the All-Star break, Taillon has a 4.28 ERA.

Those numbers are increasing because Taillon has begun to allow much more hard contact than earlier in the season. As a result, his average exit velocity is barely in the league’s top half, and his barrel rate has fallen to the bottom 45th percentile.

You simply can’t allow that level of contact against this Toronto lineup. The Blue Jays lead the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Add in that this game is taking place at one of the most hitter-friendly parks there is, and you get run outputs like last night.

The Yankees have regressed hard in the second half, and Taillon is not impervious to it, and it should continue tonight against Toronto.

Expect Gausman to Deal Against Scuffling Yanks

We go from one pitcher who is expected to regress to another who should continue to progress. Gausman is coming off his roughest outing of the season when the Cleveland Guardians tagged him for five runs on nine hits over five innings.

Prior to that outing, Gausman has only surrendered more than three runs in an outing twice. Each time that happened, he responded with a dominant performance his next time out. That trend should continue here.

Gausman has quietly been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball as he has a 2.08 FIP through 22 starts. What makes him elite is his command. Gausman has shown the ability to pinpoint his stuff all season long and force hitters to hit his pitches as mistakes are very far and few between. That is shown in his walk and chase rates, as they are each among the top three percent of baseball.

The Bronx Bombers have been off, to say the least. Last night’s loss pushed their record to 8-18 since the All-Star break, and the most prominent issues have been at the plate. Over the previous two weeks, the Yankees have the second lowest batting average in the majors. Along with that, they are 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+.

Perhaps one of the reasons behind their decline is that the league has made an adjustment on how to pitch them. Take a look a the steady decline in fastballs Aaron Judge has seen through the season.

Aaron Judge might never see a 4sm again

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) August 18, 2022

While Judge is having a mammoth season, he’s only hit four home runs in the month of August, which is on pace to be his lowest total of any month this year. If the league has figured out how to keep the Yankees in the ballpark, their struggles may continue as New York is very reliant on the longball.

Blue Jays-Yankees Pick

If you thought last night’s game was rock bottom for the Yankees, this matchup might be even more of a statement. Gausman will be motivated to avenge his past outing and bring his best stuff against a Yankees lineup that has been flailing for weeks now.

On the other side, the Blue Jays are beginning to heat up again, and the arms that they will face are trending in the opposite direction. So back the Jays to take this series tonight.

Pick: Blue Jays -110

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