It’s been about 2.5 weeks since this series last took place, and boy, was it a beautiful one.
On July 4, all three of my home run picks cashed, bringing our YTD total to 8-7. Depending on how you track the bets (for this series, I’ve been using .1u), that’s now +2.47u.
There’s no more World Cup competing with baseball, which means the spotlight is back on us! Get ready for an all-day onslaught of baseball, with afternoon games coming in bulk.
I’ve circled two players for Wednesday night that I like to find the outfield bleachers, so without further ado, let’s dive right in. Read on for my top 2 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 PM | |
| 7:07 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Twins vs. Guardians MLB Player Prop
Byron Buxton
Home Run
Byron Buxton’s career has always been mired by injuries. While this season has been his healthiest in nearly a decade, the 32-year-old still missed two weeks with a right hip strain.
Since returning a couple of days ago, Buxton has collected three hits in seven at-bats. He’s become somewhat of a boom-or-bust hitter, with 29% of his hits leaving the yard. That’s exactly the type of profile you want when targeting the home run market.
From a power perspective, this has been the best season of Buxton’s career. He owns a career-high 18.1% barrel rate and ranks in the 95th percentile among qualified hitters with a .519 xSLG. While strikeouts have always been part of his game, he’s made meaningful improvements there as well, posting a 24.3% strikeout rate – the second-lowest mark of his career.
At +350 to hit a home run, there’s plenty of value in buying low on Buxton in a favorable matchup against Slade Cecconi.
Cecconi isn’t an overpowering arm and has his own issues in the swing-and-miss department. Instead, the right-hander relies on generating weak contact to limit damage. While he’s definitely taken a step forward this season – cutting his barrel rate by 4.3% – he still has plenty of underlying concerns.
Against right-handed hitters, Cecconi relies on three pitches: fastball, sinker and cutter.
Buxton has produced positive run values against all three pitch types, and he’s especially crushed fastballs (+7 run value, .681 xSLG) and cutters (+3 run value, .617 xSLG).
Cecconi has also allowed 15% of all hits against right-handers to leave the ballpark, more than 5% higher than against lefties. While he has given up fewer fly balls this season, his 4.59 xERA suggests he’s still a pitcher worth fading.
I’m happy to buy Buxton here in what looks like an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Pick: Byron Buxton Home Run
Rays vs. Blue Jays MLB Player Prop
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Home Run
For all the fun we may have watching the power bat of Byron Buxton, we will equally suffer by watching Vladdy Jr.
The 27-year-old has more stolen bases (7) this season than home runs (6), and yes, that’s a real stat. His barrel rate has dropped over 5%, and his hard-hit rate has dropped below 50% for just the second time since 2020.
So why bet him to hit a home run now?
I actually think it’s only a matter of time before we see the home runs filter through for Guerrero, following a similar arc to Fernando Tatis Jr., who has broken out to start the second half of the season.
Over the last few games, we’ve seen Guerrero start to lift the ball more. His hard-hit rate has jumped above league average at the same time, culminating in a great buy-low opportunity on a hitter who has rarely found the bleachers this season.
Guerrero’s bat speed remains elite, and his strikeout rate hasn’t wavered year over year. In fact, he’s been quite unlucky from an xBA (.285) perspective, as Vladdy is hitting just .256 this season. Tack on that under 30% of his barrels have left the park and his recent success lifting the ball, and I’d expect some home runs to come for the once-AL MVP candidate.
Wednesday is also a great matchup against right-hander Griffin Jax, who is due for some negative regression. Jax has made the transition from backend reliever to starter, and his underlying metrics leave cause for concern.
The right-hander has a 5.31 xERA, over a run higher than actual (4.08). He has allowed the highest barrel rate (10.1%) since his rookie season in 2021 and sits among the bottom third of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate (41.1%).
There will always be hiccups as a pitcher makes the transition to starter, and for Jax it’s been an increase in fly balls (+6.2%) coupled with fewer strikeouts (-10.3%).
It’s always ugly to back Guerrero Jr. in the home run market, but I’m going to hold my breath in this spot.
