We have a whopping 17-game slate today, starting with Pirates vs Yankees at Yankee Stadium at 1:05 PM ET, and closing with White Sox vs Rangers at Globe Life Field at 8:05 PM ET.
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Wednesday, July 22.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 3:40 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Pirates vs Yankees Best Bet
By Sean Paul
I thought a lot about what to attack in this matchup. On one hand, the Yankees had their best offensive showing in close to a month in the series-opening win over the Pirates.
That feels like an outlier, though. Since June 1st, a sample of over 40 games, the Yankees are 25th in MLB with a 92 wRC+. Without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, this lineup just isn’t very good.
Things change a bit if Jazz Chisholm stays hot or Cody Bellinger gets going. But I can’t justify backing the Yankees with their porous offense.
Conversely, Mitch Keller is having a brutal season. He owns a 5.14 ERA with a 5.39 xERA and 4.49 FIP. Keller relies heavily on contact, particularly via the fly ball, which could make this matchup difficult.
So, my play here centers on the pitcher opposing Keller: former Pirate Gerrit Cole.
In his first year back from Tommy John Surgery, Cole has a 3.93 ERA with a 3.59 xERA and a 3.94 FIP. The biggest roadblock in his return from injury is the long ball, as his HR/9 is 1.47, up from 1.04 in 2024.
In this best bet, I want to target Cole's strikeouts. Sure, his K/9 is just 9.00, but that provides a decent opportunity to get in on a lower price for his strikeout prop.
Cole has his 96-99 four-seamer back in the fold, and with his ability to fill the strike zone, he'll likely have plenty of two-strike counts. The Pirates are one of the more strikeout-heavy teams in the league, ranking 26th in MLB with a 24% strikeout rate.
The former CY Young winner punched out 6+ hitters in three consecutive outings, including eight against the Dodgers in his most recent start. Aaron Boone is also plenty willing to push his starters, especially Cole. His providing length is huge ahead of game two, where Max Fried will take the mound on a 65-70 pitch count.
All but two typical Pirates starters (Jake Mangum and Nick Gonzales) strike out 20% of the time or more. Prized rookie Esmerlyn Valdez is the most strikeout-prone Pirate, punching out a brutal 34% of the time. Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Tyler Callihan check in with a strikeout rate above 27%. Those four alone will provide Cole with some pretty good candidates to tack onto his strikeout total.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Reds vs Mariners Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
The Mariners and Reds will square off at T-Mobile Park.
Emerson Hancock will take the mound for the Mariners, while the visiting Reds will start righty Brady Singer.
While Singer is currently posting a 4.56 ERA on the season with a 1.41 WHIP, Hancock is having himself a phenomenal campaign, recording a 3.17 ERA, along with a remarkably efficient 1.01 WHIP.
In addition to Singer’s struggles, he has been previously dominated by several Mariners over the last couple of seasons.
Though many Seattle sluggers set up particularly well with Singer, I like Mariners’ phenom Julio Rodriguez to have a massive day at the plate.
In 12 previous encounters, Rodriguez has had a definitive edge, having recorded four hits off Singer.
Singer’s four-seamer, which happens to be Rodriguez’s favorite pitch to hit, has resulted in opposing hitters having produced a rather substantial .474 xwOBA. That is alarming when having to face a hitter of Rodriguez’s caliber.
Moreover, my two betting angles ahead of Wednesday’s interleague clash will be on both the Mariners moneyline and also for Rodriguez to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark.
Pick: Mariners ML (-160 or Better) | Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 HRR (-130 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Padres vs Braves Pick
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Perez's strikeouts prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 3.48 strikeouts, while oddsmakers are implying 4.21. The model believes there is a 73% chance he records fewer than 5 strikeouts, so there is value on the under at -135. This play is good down to at least -198.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Martin Perez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-198 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's White Sox vs Rangers Pick
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the White Sox in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I recommend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool that gives all our PRO subscribers access to all the data we use to project games each day.
Here's a sneak peek of what BARTOLO looks like for White Sox-Rangers:
Pick: White Sox ML (-115 or Better)
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