The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 20, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Phillies are favored by -152 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Dodgers are +125 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction
- Dodgers vs Phillies Pick: F5 Over 5 (-120, FanDuel)
My Dodgers vs Phillies best bet is F5 over 5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Phillies Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +136 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -164 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -152 |
- Dodgers vs Phillies moneyline: Dodgers +125, Phillies -152
- Dodgers vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Dodgers vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+136 ), Dodgers +1.5 (-164)
Dodgers vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Eric Lauer | Stat | Aaron Nola |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 3-7 |
| -0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 4.81 / 4.97 | ERA / xERA | 5.68 / 4.20 |
| 6.06 / 5.59 | FIP / xFIP | 4.96 / 3.96 |
| 6.2 | K-BB% | 16.2 |
| 30.7 | GB% | 39.8 |
| .229 | BABIP | .319 |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Dodgers vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Dodgers vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
The First Five Over is my favorite angle on the board tonight because I'm fading both starting pitchers based on what the underlying metrics are telling us, not the names on the back of their jerseys. Aaron Nola has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season, and while Eric Lauer's surface numbers have earned him some praise, I think he's sitting on borrowed time.
Let's start with Nola.
His ERA isn't some fluky number that's been inflated by bad luck. The underlying profile says he's simply not pitching well. He owns a 4.67 FIP, has already surrendered 20 home runs in fewer than 100 innings, and hitters continue to square him up at an alarming rate. His four-seam fastball hasn't generated the same life it did during his peak years, and the barrel rate he's allowed has climbed significantly. He's also allowed at least two earned runs in 18 of his 20 starts, making it difficult to trust him against an offense like this.
Unfortunately for Nola, the matchup couldn't be much worse.
The Dodgers remain one of baseball's premier offenses against right-handed pitching. It's a lineup that consistently ranks near the top of the league in expected wOBA, expected slugging, barrel rate and hard-hit percentage against righties.
Now let's talk about Lauer, because I actually think he's the bigger fade.
The Dodgers have won every one of his starts, which is going to attract public money, but his underlying profile is nowhere near as impressive as the record suggests. Lauer owns a 4.81 ERA, but his 4.94 expected ERA tells us that's an accurate reflection of his performance. More importantly, opponents have produced a .364 expected wOBA against him despite a noticeably lower actual wOBA allowed. That's a classic indicator that he's benefited from favorable sequencing and batted-ball luck rather than dominant pitching.
The contact profile is even more concerning. Lauer has allowed a 12.5% barrel rate, carries nearly a 40% fly-ball rate, and doesn't possess the swing-and-miss arsenal to pitch around traffic. His strikeout rate sits at just 21.6%, while his fastball averages under 90 mph. He's a pitch-to-contact lefty, and that's a dangerous recipe inside Citizens Bank Park, where fly balls have a tendency to leave the yard.
The Phillies are built to take advantage of that profile. FanGraphs grades Philadelphia as one of the better offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching by wRC+, and they are well above league average in hard-hit rate against lefties. Lauer simply doesn't miss enough bats to neutralize this lineup.
We're getting two elite offenses, two starters with glaring analytical red flags, and we only need production through five innings before the bullpens enter the equation.
Pick: F5 Over 5 (-120, FanDuel)
