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Brewers vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Can New York Hit Aaron Ashby? (Thursday, June 16)

Brewers vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Can New York Hit Aaron Ashby? (Thursday, June 16) article feature image
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Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Ashby.

  • The Mets are favored in the rubber match of a three-game series tonight against the Brewers.
  • Aaron Ashby will start for Milwaukee opposite New York right-hander Tylor Megill.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Brewers vs. Mets Odds

Brewers Odds +115
Mets Odds -135
Over/Under 8 (-115 / -105)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a miraculous offensive resurgence on Wednesday night, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in another favorable spot in New York against the Mets.

Can Aaron Ashby do what Corbin Burnes did to this Mets offense last night? Let’s take a look at how to bet this one.

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Ashby Matches Up Well With New York

Entering play on Wednesday, the Brewers had lost nine of 10 games. Then came a complete performance.

Milwaukee torched David Peterson and the Mets for 10 runs, taking the middle game of a three-game series in Queens in commanding fashion. It was a massive story for a team that’s still ranked 26th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but the win was truly made possible by Burnes’ brilliance.

Burnes matched up well with the Mets given his ability to generate swings and misses, and Ashby likely has the same advantage.

The lefty has posted another stellar strikeout rate so far in 2022 at 27.7% and has allowed an elite .326 xSLG and a very low 30.4% hard-hit rate. Walks have been Ashby’s only undoing, but they’ve come as a result of his excellent chase rate, which sits in the top 19% of the league.

Mets Aren’t Trending Upward

What’s happened to the kings of contact? New York, which has led baseball in contact rate over the course of the season, has completely lost its touch of late, ranking 21st in that category over the last two weeks at 75.5%.

It’s simply an unacceptable number given the fact that the Mets have won games exclusively behind their ability to brilliantly place their softly hit balls. New York has never been among the best in the game in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, but has continued to produce at the plate regardless.

On the hill, things have been similarly troubling on occasion. A similar story could unfold on Thursday with Tylor Megill getting the nod, considering the righty has pitched to a 4.50 ERA and some troubling peripherals like a .422 xwOBA on contact.

Megill has been above average in the strikeout department and done a decent job of limiting hard-hit balls, but it’s not as if he’s been unlucky to have such a blasphemous ERA.

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Brewers-Mets Pick

The Mets are 13th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and have been a nightmare in the contact department of late. Without getting the bat on the ball consistently, New York will simply not be able to score runs due to its inability to hit home runs.

I don’t foresee a ton of runs here given Ashby’s excellent swing-and-miss numbers. Similar to Wednesday, the prime matchup with a Brewers pitcher against this slumping Mets lineup should lighten the load on Milwaukee’s offense, and with such a great matchup on that side of things it’s hard to make a case for the Mets as favorites.

Pick: Brewers ML (+115)

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