MLB Betting Odds, Picks for Brewers vs. Pirates: Value on Wednesday’s Underdog
Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryse Wilson.
- The Brewers are favored to beat the Pirates for a fifth straight time this season.
- Bryse Wilson has pitching terribly this season, but Pittsburgh is 3-0 when he starts.
- Jules Posner breaks down whether that trend will continue below.
Editor’s Note: The Pirates announced Wednesday that Dillon Peters would starts Wednesday’s game instead of Bryse Wilson.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||6:35 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates surprised everyone Tuesday night by combining to put up 20 runs in their series opener. This is the second time in the past three games that the Pirates have been involved in a 20-run game. However, this time around they actually managed to contribute to that run total.
On Wednesday for game two of the series, the Pirates send Bryse Wilson to the mound to see if he can help them even the series, while Milwaukee will counter with left-hander Aaron Ashby.
Pittsburgh enters this game 0-4 on the young season against the reigning National League Central champions.
After Tuesday’s surprising offensive outburst, let’s try to predict what will happen on Wednesday night.
Milwaukee’s Bats Show Sign of Life
After losing two out of three to the Cubs in their opening series, the Brewers have bounced back nicely and haven’t lost a set since. They’ve been anchored by solid starting pitching and timely hitting.
Yes, Milwaukee’s hitting has been timely, but outside of Tuesday night’s 12-run performance it has not been abundant. The Brewers entered that game ranked 24th in runs scored and 28th in team wRC+. Additionally, they were also 25th in the Majors in team wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching.
That number should tick up a bit after beating up on Mitch Keller and Heath Hembree, but there’s enough data on the season to show that Tuesday night was more of an anomaly than a trend.
The Brewers managed to rest most of their high-leverage relievers on Tuesday, so you can count on their ‘pen to shut down Pittsburgh if called upon.
Ashby struggled in his last start on April 17 against the Cardinals, against whom he walked four and allowed three unearned runs over four innings. Since then, he got touched up in his last appearance on Friday in Philadelphia, where he surrendered three runs on five hits in 2 1/3 innings.
This may end up being more of a bullpen game for Milwaukee than a traditional start, but it seems Ashby is going to have a short leash.
The Pirates Lineup is Better, But Not Good Yet
Ugh, the Pirates.
I will say this: The Pirates quite surprisingly have the 12th-best team wRC+ at home so far this season. Unfortunately, they also have the sixth-fewest plate appearances as a team at home, so make of that what you will.
Wilson has had a rough start to his season, with his 6.35 ERA and 6.42 FIP indicating that, yes, he is pitching as poorly as it seems he is. Somehow, though, the Pirates are undefeated this year when Wilson starts. That’s right, 3-0.
Overall, the Pirates are 21st in team wRC+ and 22nd in runs scored, which is actually an improvement from last season. Additionally, their bullpen has been almost OK. They’re in the upper two-thirds in ERA and FIP, so it’s not all bad. It’s just mostly kind of bad.
Unfortunately, their best player, Bryan Reynolds, is most likely to miss Wednesday night’s game since he’s on the COVID list, but the Pirates put up eight runs without him on Tuesday night. They should be fine, right?
The Pirates did just get swept by the Brewers in Milwaukee when these teams met from April 18-20, but the Brewers did not have to deal with the Pirates’ bizarre Wilson magic. I don’t know what it is about the guy, but for some reason the bats show up when he’s on the mound.
It’s hard to sweep a series on the road, so we’ll bet that this is the game the Pirates win from this three-game set. Let’s say YOLO and take that Pirates ML, because sometimes all you need is a little magic.
Pick: Pirates ML +150
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