The New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs on June 22, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Cubs are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Mets Prediction
- Cubs vs Mets Pick: Cubs ML (-118 | Play to -130)
My Cubs vs Mets best bet is on Chicago to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Mets Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
- Cubs vs Mets moneyline: Cubs -118, Mets +100
- Cubs vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Cubs vs Mets spread: Cubs -1.5 (+134), Mets +1.5 (-162)
Cubs vs Mets Kalshi MLB Odds
Cubs vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Shota Imanaga (LHP, CHC) | Stat | Kodai Senga (RHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 0-5 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 4.26 / 3.65 | ERA / xERA | 9.00 / 5.12 |
| 4.58 / 3.88 | FIP / xFIP | 6.81 / 5.14 |
| 17.8 | K-BB% | 9.6 |
| 38.2 | GB% | 26.9 |
| .238 | BABIP | .344 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 108 | Location+ | 95 |
Cubs vs Mets MLB Betting Preview, Betting Analysis
The Cubs could really use a hot stretch, as they sit at 40-37, which is good for third place in the NL Central.
This could be a nice get-right spot, starting with an advantageous pitching matchup.
Shota Imanaga is having a season that perfectly details what makes him both good and bad. He has a 4.26 ERA with a 3.64 xERA and 4.58 FIP. That's not bad, but he’ll never be a top-two pitcher for a winning team’s rotation due to his terrible 1.77 HR/9.
Over 40% of Imanaga’s outs come via the fly-ball, and he throws a low-90s fastball 44% of the time. So, it’s only natural that opponents will take advantage when he mislocates one.
In June, the Cubs offense has gotten on track, posting a 123 wRC+ with a 10.7% walk rate (third best), a 20.7% strikeout rate (ninth), and 23 home runs (12th). After a nightmare month of May, things are back where they should be for the Cubs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki are leading the way for this Cubs offensive resurgence. Crow-Armstrong has nine homers in his last 17 games and sports a 281 wRC+. Suzuki hasn’t been quite as elite, but a 190 wRC+ will do.
My one reservation about the Cubs is their bullpen. Saturday’s loss to the Blue Jays is a perfect example of the potential disaster that awaits Chicago late in games sans closer Daniel Palencia.
They gave up eight runs in the final three innings to lose by two. For this handicap, I’m tabbing Imanaga for six innings and the Cubs to figure out the final nine outs between Ethan Roberts, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Rollison and Jacob Webb.
The Mets have a comfortable spot in last place in the NL East, sitting at 34-43 and 14.5 games behind the Braves for first place.
Starting pitching remains the biggest issue for New York — and one of the biggest problems is Kodai Senga. Although it’s just a five-start sample, Senga owns a 9.00 ERA with a 5.11 xERA and 6.81 FIP.
He still has a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a devastating forkball, leading to a dazzling 10.50 K/9, but his location is shaky at best.
Senga walked at least two hitters in each of his five outings and has a 6.39 BB/9. Senga has always dealt with walk issues, which is fine if he keeps his HR/9 below 1.00 like he did last year. This year, his HR/9 is up to 2.63 — an unsustainable number, but he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher getting barreled 11.8% of the time. In 2023, his barrel rate was 6.5%; last year, it was 8%.
The Mets offense has progressively improved throughout the season, posting a 104 wRC+ in 18 games in May, up from their 90 wRC+ for the year.
A poor plate approach is a real hindrance to the Mets' offensive success, as they have just 7% of the time and a 24% strikeout rate in June. They have 24 homers, which is 10th-best, but it makes them a very home-run-or-bust team.
The tandem of Juan Soto and Bo Bichette has carried a lot of weight lately, each posting a 160 wRC+. Bichette started his Mets tenure poorly, but a .357 batting average and three homers in a month will buy some fans over.
In all, I just can't back Senga in his current form. The stuff is strong, but this Cubs lineup is happy to take pitches and make the opposition work. If Senga can't find the zone, Chicago will make him pay and put up a crooked number.
Pick: Cubs ML (-118, FanDuel | Play to -130)
