The Chicago Cubs (67-51) and Toronto Blue Jays (70-50) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MARQ.
Toronto is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Chicago is +110 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Cubs vs Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 13, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Picks, Prediction
- Cubs vs Blue Jays pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-115)
My Blue Jays vs. Cubs best bet is on the over, with the best price currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Odds for Wednesday, August 13
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Cubs vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cade Horton (CHC) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.18 / 4.28 | ERA / xERA | 3.85 / 3.62 |
| 3.90 / 4.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 3.91 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 10.4 | K-BB% | 17.5 |
| 47.0 | GB% | 33.5 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview, Analysis
The Cubs' offensive slump continued in yesterday's series opener, as they managed only one run from four hits and seven walks.
Pete Crow-Armstrong went 0-for-4 at the plate and is now 3-for-37 at the plate in the month of August. While PCA may be unable to regain his form and produce offensively as he did earlier in the campaign, Chicago's offense still appears to be due for greater production in the near future.
Since the All-Star break, the Cubs have a wRC+ of 79 with runners in scoring position and hold a BABIP of .250 with men on during that span, which is the fourth-lowest mark in MLB.
The Cubs have the third-highest wRC+ with RISP across the entirety of the season and could be due for positive regression in that regard moving forward.
Perhaps Crow-Armstrong (.182 xBA in August) was playing above his means early in the season, but even still, the Cubs offer a well-rounded lineup that should stabilize offensively in the near future.
Chicago holds the second-highest xSLG and ranks second to only the Blue Jays in xBA. Chicago also has the fourth-highest wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season.
Horton has been a positive surprise for the Cubs in his rookie season, with a 3.18 ERA throughout his initial 15 appearances. While pitching in front of an elite defensive side has likely helped power his overachievement, he holds an xERA of 4.28 and an xFIP of 4.41.
Horton's pitch metrics are quite mediocre, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 94 and a Pitching+ rating of 93. He generates ground balls at a solid rate (47.4%), but owns a strikeout minus walk rate of 10.4% and has been hard-hit 40.9% of the time.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview, Analysis
Toronto's offense remained in strong form in the series opener, generating five runs and 12 hits while striking out only twice.
Since June 1st, Toronto has held the highest wRC+ in baseball and has struck out at the lowest rate in MLB. They have the highest xBA in baseball, which is a particularly strong indicator given they also rank first in BB/K.
The big names atop the lineup have been excellent recently, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds an OPS of 1.145 since the All-Star break, and Bo Bichette owns an OPS of .949 in the same span.
Daulton Varsho's return to the lineup has also provided even greater depth to the lineup, as he's slugged .821 since returning on August 1st.
The Blue Jays hold the second-best wRC+ in baseball versus right-handed pitching this season and hold the best BB/K ratio in MLB.
Rogers Centre has been the ninth most favorable ballpark for run creation this season, and Gausman has allowed a higher ERA and WHIP at home. He's pitched to a 4.26 ERA and 1.22 at home this season, compared to marks of 3.48 and 0.95 on the road.
Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 3.81 and an xFIP of 4.27 in his last ten starts, and his Pitching+ of 91 is a considerable dropoff compared to his mark of 98 over the entirety of the season.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Betting Predictions
Gausman does not appear to be quite as dominant as his recent results suggest, and a Cubs offense that has crushed righties this season could be poised for a more productive evening after a lethargic performance in the series opener.
While part of Horton's overachievement is likely due to the Cubs' elite defensive play, he still appears to be a league-average starter and gets a really tough matchup on Wednesday.
The Blue Jays have been the league's best offensive side since June 1st and own an MLB-best record of 39-19 at home, as well as a wRC+ of 121.
While my lean would be with the Cubs in terms of a side, both teams appear likely to have strong offensive performances, and a total of 8.5 looks too low for this matchup at Rogers Centre.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Best Bet
- Over 8.5 (-115)
Cubs vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
For the latest on MLB injuries, be sure to check out our MLB Injury Report page.
