The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Reds vs Nationals prediction and pick for the first five innings (F5) for Wednesday below.
Reds vs Nationals Prediction, F5 Pick
- Reds vs Nationals pick: Nationals F5 Moneyline (+120, DraftKings)
My Reds vs Nationals best bet is the Nationals' F5 moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Nationals Odds, Lines
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
Reds vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Soroka (WAS) | Stat | LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 7-6 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 5.10 / 3.22 | ERA / xERA | 3.33 / 3.95 |
| 4.05 / 3.90 | FIP / xFIP | 3.99 / 3.90 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 18.4% | K-BB% | 17.3% |
| 44.3% | GB% | 39.8% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Reds vs Nationals Preview, Prediction
Nationals Betting Preview
The Nationals did what all teams that are likely not playoff teams should do — take flyers on high-potential players who hadn’t panned out and try dealing them at the deadline. That’ll be perfect for Michael Soroka, whose numbers don’t reflect how good he’s performed.
Nothing about Soroka’s ERA stands out, as it sits at 5.10. The good thing is Soroka has a 3.22 xERA and 4.05 FIP.
As he sought to resurrect his career, Soroka completely revamped his arsenal and made himself a much more trustworthy pitcher. Even in his best year in 2019, Soroka struck out just 7.32 batters per nine. Now, he’s punching out a career-high 9.58 per nine.
I love backing Soroka here, but he needs to get deeper in the game. He's pitched six innings in just three of his last eight outings. Perhaps he can trade some of those strikeouts for quick outs via the groundball to find his way into the sixth inning.
Behind Soroka is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Nationals pen combines for a 4.77 ERA (second-worst in baseball) with a 4.29 FIP. I'm not sure I trust a single arm in their pen, not even Kyle Finnegan, whose ERA sits around 4.00. I know that's not the most glowing review of a team I'm backing, but we're betting them and avoiding their pen.
The Nationals' offense is the better of the two in this series. They rank 16th in MLB with a 99 wRC+ in July, while posting a strong 8.4% walk rate and 20.9% strikeout rate.
It's even more impressive that Washington has found a way to make up for James Wood and CJ Abrams having a down start to their first few weeks in July. Veteran infielders Amed Rosario and Paul DeJong have picked up the slack, each hitting over .270 with a wRC+ better than 120.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
After years of dealing with injury issues, Nick Lodolo, a former top-10 draft pick, is finally healthy and posting strong results. Lodolo enters with a 3.33 ERA, while his xERA, FIP, and xFIP each sit in the 3.90 range. That likely means if regression hits Lodolo, it won't be anything drastic.
Moreover, Lodolo is more of a complete pitcher than ever before. He would hunt strikeouts and leave the Reds bullpen in a tough spot because he'd rarely get past the fifth. Now, he has an 8.23 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9, which means he's using fewer pitches and getting deeper in games.
Of potential concern, he ranks below the 51st percentile in every Statcast category other than a 94th percentile walk rate and 85th percentile chase rate. His batted ball metrics are fairly worrisome, ranking in the 38th percentile in barrel rate and 37th in hard hit rate. He allows a lot of fly-balls, which is why his HR/9 is at 1.27.
The Reds' offense is struggling mightily in July, ranking 27th with an 88 wRC+. They also rank in the bottom five in both home runs and isolated power, which correlates with star shortstop Elly De La Cruz having zero home runs this month.
Whether Elly is going off or not, the Reds' offense is mediocre at best. However, their upside jumps dramatically when Elly is hitting for power and posting a wRC+ in the 140 range, not in the low 100 range.
Reds vs Nationals Prediction, F5 Pick
I want to jump on the Soroka train before his ERA gets close to his expected numbers, so I'm on the Nationals here. He'll successfully navigate through this shaky Reds batting order.
The question is, can Soroka go more than five innings?
I can't say definitively that he can, but the idea of betting on Washington's pen for four innings sounds like an awful idea.
That's why I'm putting this bet in Soroka's hands and grabbing the Nationals' F5 ML.
Pick: Nationals F5 ML (+120, DraftKings)
Moneyline
The Nationals F5 moneyline is my bet for this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play for either side of the run line.
Over/Under
I have no play for the game total.
