The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Rockies TV and FanDuel Sports Florida.
The Rockies enter Wednesday on a two-game winning streak — just their second such streak this season and first series win of the year — as they look to sweep the Marlins. Can the Rockies notch their first sweep of the season?
Continue below for my Rockies vs Marlins prediction for Wednesday afternoon.
My Rockies vs Marlins Prediction
- Rockies vs Marlins picks: Over 8; Bet to Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
My Rockies vs Marlins best bet is Over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Marlins Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | +110 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1-5 +168 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | -130 |
Rockies vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) | Stat | RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-8 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 5.72 / 4.88 | ERA /xERA | 5.84 / 5.17 |
| 3.68 / 3.65 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48 / 4.44 |
| 1.63 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 12.5% | K-BB% | 10.3% |
| 45% | GB% | 35% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 104 | Location+ | 102 |
Tony Sartori's Rockies vs Marlins Preview
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview
Kyle Freeland has been in free fall since 2023. While he has failed to post an ERA below 5.00 over the past three seasons, he is reaching new lows this year.
Through 12 starts, Freeland is 0-8 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally concerning, as the left-hander ranks in the 18th percentile in expected ERA (xERA) and the fifth percentile in expected batting average (xBA).
Following Freeland is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Entering this matchup, Colorado’s relief staff ranks in the bottom seven in fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
While the Rockies don’t boast an elite lineup, they do have an excellent track record against Cal Quantrill. In 43 combined plate appearances against him, the current Colorado roster owns a .314 batting average, .657 slugging percentage and .455 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Rockies' success against Quantrill is likely to continue on Wednesday. Through 11 starts this season, Quantrill ranks in the 26th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
As a result, Quantrill owns a 3-5 record with a 5.84 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Like Freeland, he is backed by a below-average bullpen.
Miami’s relief staff ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR. However, a key difference between these two clubs this year lies in offensive production.
The Marlins are capable of manufacturing runs, ranking in the top half of the league in hits per game, batting average and stolen bases. It doesn't take much to produce runs against Freeland, which should help drive a high-scoring outcome.
Rockies vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Nearly every factor points toward a high-scoring game. Both starting pitchers have struggled this season, and both bullpens rank near the bottom of the league across key metrics.
Miami may lack home run power, but it can rack up hits and swipe bases. The only question mark is Colorado’s lineup, but that concern is lessened by the club’s strong history against Quantrill.
Pick: Over 8; Bet to Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Miami, but I don't want to back Quantrill.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Miami to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting over 8.5.
