Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Betting Pick & Prediction: Cubs Will Have Trouble with Burnes
Jeffrey Phelps/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
- The Milwaukee Brewers are a big favorite over the Chicago Cubs as they send ace Corbin Burnes to the mound.
- Tony Sartori is laying the big price with the Brewers, as they have the edge in every facet of the game and match up well against Cubs starter Marcus Stroman.
- Get his Cubs vs. Brewers pick and preview below.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
We have the third and final game of this NL Central series between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. This is the sixth meeting between these two teams, with the Brewers having won three of the first five.
Will the Brewers close out the series with a win on their home diamond, or can the Cubs grab the upset on the road?
Stroman Off To Sluggish Start With Cubs
The Chicago Cubs enter this game having lost eight of their past 10 games, including three in a row. Six of those eight losses have been by at least a two-run margin, a trend that could continue in this matchup. Marcus Stroman is set to start for the Cubs and should be a good fade candidate. The right-hander has had an awful start to the season, registering an 0-3 record with a 6.98 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through four starts.
Stroman’s metrics suggest that positive regression is not coming anytime soon. Opposing hitters have a .393 xwOBA, .307 xBA and .576 xSLG against him this season.
Even if Stroman gets pulled early, there should not be much faith in Chicago’s bullpen. Chicago’s relief pitching entered Saturday just 19th in the league in BA, 28th in SLG and 20th in wOBA.
I don’t expect Chicago’s pitching staff to get much run support either against Corbin Burnes.
Through 86 career plate appearances against Burnes, this current Cubs roster has a .210 xBA, .384 xSLG and .300 xwOBA. Entering Saturday, Chicago had scored just 2.4 runs per game, as well.
While Chicago enters this game in poor form, the Brewers are trending in the opposite directions and have won 13 of their past 17 games. Of those 13 wins, 10 have been by at least two runs.
Milwaukee should be able to keep it rolling with Burnes on the mound. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has picked up right where he left off last season, with a 1-0, 1.75 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in four starts this season.
Burnes’ metrics suggest that regression is not coming anytime soon. Opposing hitters have a .283 xwOBA, .212 xBA and .375 xSLG against him this season. In two home starts this season, Burnes has been dominant with a 1.32 ERA and 0.585 WHIP.
Milwaukee’s bullpen should not be a concern following Burnes, as it entered Saturday ranked 13th in MLB in ERA, fifth in SLG against and 10th in wOBA.
The Brewers should also provide ample run support against Stroman. In 57 career plate appearances against Stroman, this current Brewers lineup boasts a .262 xBA, .483 xSLG and .333 xwOBA. Against right-handed pitchers at home this season, Milwaukee ranks 11th in wOBA, sixth in SLG and ninth in OPS.
While this is a square pick and I imagine the public will also be all over the Brewers, I just don’t see any reason to bet against them. They’re at home, have the better starting pitcher and bullpen, and they have a great matchup against Stroman.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and I expect Milwaukee to close out the series on a positive note in front of its home crowd.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110) | Play up to (-110)