Cubs vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Total in Los Angeles (Sunday, July 10)
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias (Dodgers)
- The Dodgers are heavy home favorites on Sunday against the Cubs.
- The Cubs have struggled to hit against lefties, and they will be challenged against Julio Urias on the mound for LA.
- Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Cubs vs. Dodgers Odds
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete the four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Sunday afternoon and also look to win their seventh consecutive game in the process.
The series so far has been more tightly contested than anticipated. The Dodgers are perpetually returning to full strength as it seems every reinstatement from the IL corresponds with a new injury. However, the Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games and continue to pad their NL West lead.
The Chicago Cubs have put up a fight this series, and despite losing the first three games, they are still 6-4 over their last 10 games.
Can the Cubs’ Bats Breakthrough Against a Lefty?
Drew Smyly returns from the IL and will make his first start since May 30th for Chicago. His overall numbers this season have been decent, but he has been more effective on the road so far this season.
Over 26 road innings, Smyly has posted a 3.12 ERA but also has a 4.41 FIP. It’s uncertain if he will be on a pitch count in his return from an oblique strain, but Smyly does not typically work deep into games anyway. If that’s the case, the Cubs’ bullpen has been solid this season and should keep things close if called upon early.
One big area of weakness for the Cubs as of late has been their offense against LHP on the road. Over the past month, they are 29th in team wRC+, which is bad. Well, it’s actually really bad.
Urias and the Dodgers Look for the Sweep
Julio Urias gets the start for the Dodgers, and he’s been solid so far this season, but he has not been as dominant as he was last season. So far this season, he has a higher BB/9 and HR/9 while his K/9 has dropped.
Consequently, that has impacted his peripherals as he has posted a 4.51 FIP at home this season. However, he has managed to limit damage en route to a 2.45 ERA at home.
The Dodgers offense is also still one of the most talented units in MLB. Over the past month, they rank in the middle of the pack against LHP at home as they are 15th in wRC+, but they are always candidates to erupt offensively in any game.
Additionally, their bullpen has been as solid as they come this season, and they’ve been especially good over the past two weeks, helping them to a 9-1 record over their last 10 games.
While there are a lot of interesting plays in this match up, one really seems to stand out. The total is set at 8.5 runs, and the both teams have combined to score fewer than 8.5 runs in all three games of this series so far.
While the peripherals of each starter may account for a couple of runs each, the bullpens and the Cubs’ difficulties dealing with LHP on the road over the past month signal that the Dodgers would have to carry the total. Therefore, the under looks like it should be a solid play today. If it stays at 8.5 at -115 odds, that’s great value, and it can be played to 8 runs or -120.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 | PointsBet)