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MLB Odds & Picks for Cubs vs. Yankees: How to Bet This ‘Incredibly Skewed’ Matchup

MLB Odds & Picks for Cubs vs. Yankees: How to Bet This ‘Incredibly Skewed’ Matchup article feature image

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Montgomery (Yankees)

  • After a marathon game Friday night, the Cubs and Yankees are back at it from the Bronx on Saturday.
  • The Yanks will send Jordan Montgomery to the hill while the Cubs will send Matt Swarmer to the bump.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.

Cubs vs. Yankees Odds

Cubs Odds+200
Yankees Odds-245
Over/Under9 (-104 / -118)
Time7:15 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a marathon on Friday, the Cubs and Yankees will play the second of three in the Bronx tonight.

Chicago will send a relatively unknown commodity to the hill to face one of the best lineups in baseball, and the Yankees will counter with one of their sturdiest lefties.

Where does the value lie here? Let’s take a look.

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Cubs Surprising Many on Offense

To the surprise of many, the Cubs have actually been a competent offense lately. Despite lacking major-league quality bats up and down the order, Chicago ranks 12th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a beefy 10.9% walk rate and a low 18.6% strikeout rate.

While these guys weren’t able to provide the Cubs with more than one run on Friday, they still managed a resounding nine hits in 13 innings.

On the hill for Chicago will be Matt Swarmer. We don’t know much about the 28-year-old, other than the fact that he had a sparkling 2.08 ERA in 39 innings at the Triple-A level this year and has followed that up with 12 innings of two-run ball here with the big-league club.

Swarmer also had a 4.79 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A last year and has a career 4.40 ERA at all minor-league levels. His undoing at times was the gopher ball, giving up 1.4 per nine. H’s given up three already in his two big-league starts.

How Will Montgomery Fare for Yanks?

It’s been rather ho-hum for the Yankees lately, who continue to carry on without much issue. In the last 14 days, they’re second in baseball with a 137 wRC+. Like the Cubs, their walk rate is above 10% with a pretty low 20.9% strikeout rate to accompany it.

Also unsurprising is the fact that the Yankees rank fifth in Barrel Rate and sixth in Hard Hit Rate.

We’ll focus here on Jordan Montgomery — since we know this offense is very good, even if it took a painstakingly long time to win on Friday evening.

The big, tall left-hander has come up with a 3.02 ERA in 11 starts this season, leaning on a sinker as his primary pitch. After allowing a .359 average against that pitch a year ago, Montgomery has given up a hit in just 23.4% of at-bats this season where the ball has been put in play — even though his .298 xBA tells a slightly different story.

The fact is, though, that Montgomery has pitched to contact incredibly well with that sinker. He’s given up just a 33.9% Hard Hit Rate against the pitch this year. He’s traded in strikeouts for ground-ball outs and it’s really worked well.

Cubs-Yankees Pick

The Cubs are 20th in Hard Hit Rate over the last two weeks and do not make much quality contact, making this matchup quite the easy one for Montgomery.

On the other side, Swarmer’s inability to limit home runs is surely going to come back to bite him here against one of the league’s great sources of power.

That leaves me with no other choice than to take a deep breath and lay the run line with a home team. I see this matchup as incredibly skewed, and I think the letdown will be real after the Cubs were unable to win a game after allowing just one run and gathering nine hits.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-125)

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