The Detroit Tigers visit the Seattle Mariners in Game 2 of the ALDS on October 5, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB pick and Tigers vs Mariners prediction below, as well as odds, probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Mariners Prediction
- Tigers vs Mariners picks: Tigers Moneyline (-148)
My Tigers vs Mariners best bet is Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Mariners Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
Tigers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 6.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 2.21 / 2.74 | ERA /xERA | 3.54 / 4.09 |
| 2.45 / 2.66 | FIP / xFIP | 3.88 / 4.09 |
| 0.89 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 27.8% | K-BB% | 15.6 |
| 41% | GB% | 41.3% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 105 | Location+ | 106 |
Kenny Ducey’s Tigers vs Mariners Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Skubal Shaking off Rust
Tarik Skubal has picked up right where he left off following last year's postseason run, shutting down the Cleveland Guardians last week with 14 punchouts across 7 2/3 innings. It was quite impressive considering Cleveland's ability to put the ball in play, and now Skubal will square off with a Mariners team that's struck out at an even-higher clip in the last month.
That hasn't necessarily meant great things this season, however. The last time Skubal faced the Mariners, he ended with just five strikeouts over five innings, where he surrendered four earned runs in a home loss. He also saw the M's back in April, when he allowed three earned runs with eight punchouts over 5 2/3 innings.
You can certainly say Skubal was just shaking off some rust in the first meeting, which was the second start of his season, but when you look at the whole picture, it's clear this Seattle team is getting a better read on him. The benefit of pitching in Seattle should be real; however, considering Skubal has pitched to plenty of fly balls, and we covered yesterday how bad this Tigers infield has been.
We also discussed the bullpen — which had been struggling. Detroit shrugged off many of those concerns with a very complete performance out of its stable on Saturday, using everyone but Brenan Hanifee to navigate an extra-innings win. If the Tigers' bullpen returns to form, it's going to be difficult to beat them.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Castillo a Sinking Ship
Luis Castillo hit a wall this season. His strikeout rate plummeted once again, now sitting almost six points lower than his 27.3% punchout rate in 2023, and as he's pitched to more contact in the air than ever in these last few years, he's left himself just as vulnerable to the home run as ever.
He's been another T-Mobile merchant, running a 2.60 ERA at home that's more than two runs better than his road ERA. It's led the Mariners to be a bit quicker with the hook at times this season, but Castillo did finish strong with just three earned runs over 25 1/3 innings in his last four starts. They did come against the Rockies, Angels, Royals and Braves, however, so we'll need to take that finish with a grain of salt.
Castillo owns a 3.75 ERA through two starts this season against the Tigers, totaling just 11 strikeouts in 12 innings with four walks and a homer against him. The numbers aren't all that encouraging, considering the Tigers have the sixth-highest whiff rate on fastballs from righties, though it makes a bit more sense when you consider Detroit ranks top-five in expected batting average and slugging percentage against the pitch. He's just not missing bats, and he's paying dearly.
I'd ordinarily write that the Mariners have a bullpen advantage; they did finish the season with one of the best ERAs in September. Unfortunately, they did burn Andres Munoz, Caleb Ferguson, Carlos Vargas and Matt Brash for 17 or more pitches, and that means we might see Emerson Hancock or Bryce Miller here. I'm not a fan of either, and if the Mariners do the smart thing and conserve some arms, it may fall apart for them.
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mariners may have done some good work against Skubal this season, but in the end, they have the ninth-highest whiff rate on changeups from lefties this season, with a lousy .231 xBA.
They'll be unable to drive the ball with success on Skubal, who has limited hard-hit balls and owns a friendly .357 xSLG, and they'll also be hitting into the technical strength of this Tigers defense, which has struggled to get to many ground balls.
Detroit's performed well against fastballs and owns a solid .294 xBA with a low-enough 13.3% whiff rate on sinkers from righties, and its bullpen is not only coming off an inspired showing but may not need to get many outs behind Skubal. Seattle's going to have to use more relievers here, and after last night, it's unlikely to work well with the fresh arms remaining.
There's no other way to go in my eyes.
Pick: Tigers ML (-148) | Play to -160
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm rolling with the Tigers here.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on this.
Over/Under
I'll pass on this too.
Tigers vs Mariners Betting Trends
