Diamondbacks vs Brewers Picks Today | Wednesday MLB Betting Preview (October 5)

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Picks Today | Wednesday MLB Betting Preview (October 5) article feature image

John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds

Diamondbacks Odds+145
Brewers Odds-170
Over/Under7 (+100/-120)
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

A disappointing season for these two teams comes to a close today.

For the Brewers, who led the National League Central division at the trade deadline, being eliminated from playoff contention before the last day of the season has to sting. Milwaukee leads all of baseball in blown saves with 15 since trading All-Star closer Josh Hader, which certainly contributed to their demise.

For the Diamondbacks, this is becoming old hat as they've missed the playoffs for five consecutive seasons. With nothing but pride on the line this time, who will get the job done and ultimately take home the victory?

Can the Diamondbacks Rattle Corbin Burnes Again?

The Brewers' Corbin Burnes is the defending National League Cy Young award winner and has a 2.98 ERA this year. However, he didn't fare so well the one time he faced Arizona this year. He faced the Diamondbacks once on the road and allowed seven hits, three walks and five earned runs in 5.2 innings.

Whatever was going on with Burnes in that start, he's appeared in top form in his last two starts tossing quality starts with at least seven strikeouts both times. Burnes has a 3.12 ERA at home and the Diamondbacks have a middle of the pack offense that averages 4.13 runs per game on the road this year.

Brewers Hitters Set Up for Success

Merril Kelly has had a solid year for the Diamondbacks as he has a 3.43 ERA, though his xFIP is considerably higher at 4.54.

The Brewers could prove to be a difficult matchup for Kelly as they have a mostly left-handed hitting lineup. Kelly has a 24% K% and .118 ISO allowed to right-handed batters, but against left-handed hitters his K% is merely 18% and his ISO allowed is .183.

Rowdy Tellez and Kolten Wong each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season and the Brewers have other left-handed hitters in the lineup like Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez, Cal Mitchell and Jace Peterson.

It's not exactly murderer's row, but it should be enough to push across a few runs against Kelly.

Diamondbacks-Brewers Pick

I'm on the Brewers here. While it's undoubtedly been a disappointing season for them, they should be able to take care of business at home against an inferior opponent.

The left-handed hitters in their lineup give the Brewers the edge on offense and Burnes is obviously a significantly better pitcher than Kelly. I took the Brewers moneyline at -170.

Pick: Brewers ML (-170)

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