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Diamondbacks vs. Padres MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Player Prop to Target in NL West Showdown (Friday, July 15)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Player Prop to Target in NL West Showdown (Friday, July 15) article feature image
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Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Hosmer

  • The Padres are strong home favorites in tonight's matchup with the Diamondbacks.
  • San Diego sends Yu Darvish to the mound against Arizona's Madison Bumgarner.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +155
Padres Odds -190
Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-120)
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The San Diego Padres open a three-game home series with the Arizona Diamondbacks Friday, as they look to hold steady in the NL wild-card race with the rival Dodgers pulling away in the battle for the NL West.

The Padres enter as heavy favorites with Yu Darvish on the mound, as he has pitched to a stellar ERA of 1.69 at home so far this season.

Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for the D’backs, and he has posted a surprisingly strong ERA of 3.65 in 91 innings.

Bumgarner has a deep history with the Padres over the last three seasons. Could that larger sample offer us some value looking towards a player prop on this contest?

Diamondbacks Rely on Regressing Bumgarner

Bumgarner’s ERA of 3.65 certainly looks odd considering the struggles we have seen from the 32-year-old in each of the last three campaigns.

With little in the way of significant changes from the aging veteran, it’s far from surprising to Bumgarner’s xERA of 4.82 suggests he has ran with some favorable luck so far.

Bumgarner has thrown a notably poor QOPA of 3.90 this season, which is a significantly worse mark compared to what we saw throughout the 2021 season, in which Bumgarner pitched to an xERA of 4.32.

Bumgarner’s lower quality stuff this season is likely the causation of his 16.7% K-rate this season compared to a mark of 20.2% last year, and all indications seem to be that Bumgarner is due for worse results moving forward.

Padres Offense Has Solid Matchup

Darvish has been significantly better at home this season, and has pitched to an ERA of 1.69 in 51 1/3 innings with a WHIP of just 0.73 in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park.

Offensively, the Padres have hit more effectively against left-handed pitching this season, with a 16th-ranked wRC+ of 104 and a .312 wOBA both considerable improvements compared to it’s splits against righties.

Eric Hosmer, in particular, has been effective against lefties this season, as evidenced by his .341 average and .441 slug rate.

Hosmer has batted .355 on breaking pitches this season, which is second best among hitters with at least 130 PAs this season. Bumgarner has thrown breaking stuff 58% of the time, which is the highest mark among qualified starters.

Over the last three seasons Hosmer has hit Bumgarner very effectively as well, with a .933 slug-rate throughout a sample of 15 PAs.

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Diamondbacks-Padres Pick

With how Darvish has dominated at home this season, I certainly would lean towards them as a side, but their implied probability to win this game of 65% still seems close to fair.

However, I do see some clear value backing Hosmer to record over 1.5 total bases at +115, as Hosmer has dominated Bumgarner throughout the last three seasons, and a number of splits specific to this 2022 campaign suggest it is still a very favorable matchup for Hosmer.

Pick: Eric Hosmer Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 (Play to +100)

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