Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Find Betting Value on Over/Under (April 26)

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Fresh off a complete-game shutout on the back of Walker Buehler, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to continue their recent tear against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night.

Tony Gonsolin takes the mound for the Dodgers looking to continue his scorching hot start to the season, while Arizona looks to bounce back behind Zach Davies.

After being blanked last night, can the Diamondbacks offense bounce back against Gonsolin, or will the Dodgers continue to run rampant atop the National League West?

Gonsolin Due for Negative Regression?

From an outsider's perspective, there are few pitchers who have been better in 2022 than Gonsolin. The right-hander has a 0.69 ERA and ranks in the top 5% of all pitchers in limiting hard contact.

He has given up just one run over his three starts and enters fresh off a six-inning shutout against the Atlanta Braves, where he gave up just one hit. But take a deeper look at his advanced metrics, and there are some concerns for the 27-year-old that could signal incoming negative regression.

For starters, his xERA (3.19) and xFIP (4.59) sit a lot higher than his actual stats. He's left nearly 94% of runners on base and still has a tendency to walk too many batters.

Gonsolin ranked in the bottom 3% of the league in walk percentage (14.2%) last season, and his struggles have picked right up in 2022. His xBA is also a career-worst .243 — obviously, it's been just three starts — but shows that he's gotten quite fortunate with balls put into play.

While he does draw a favorable matchup against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 27th in wRC+, Arizona ranks third in walk rate and forces opponents to attack the strike zone.

Gonsolin will be behind one of the best offenses in baseball that ranks second in runs and sixth in on-base percentage.

Despite Max Muncy and Justin Turner's early-season struggles, Cody Bellinger (165 wRC+) and Gavin Lux (136 wRC+) have stepped up in a big way. And of course, the addition of Freddie Freeman (170 wRC+, .397 OBP) has only boosted this daunted middle of the lineup.

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Don't Trust Davies

Davies takes the mound on Tuesday night looking to build off his best outing of the season when he held the Nationals to just two hits over five innings.

Davies has been one of the most fortunate pitchers by advanced metrics over the last three seasons. His xERA sat 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA in 2019 and nearly 2.5 runs higher in the COVID-shortened 2020.

That build-up led to a landslide last season, where his xERA (6.31) and xBA (.294) landed Davies in the bottom 3% of all pitchers.

Since coming to Arizona, though, he has seen slight improvements, specifically with his changeup. It's generating nearly 10% more whiffs, and Davies has limited hard contact in the early going.

But Davies is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his sinker and changeup 92% of the time. His sinker remains a problem — opposing hitters have a .313 xBA — which puts a heavy strain on Davies to have his changeup working each time on the field.

And while his numbers have definitely taken a step forward from an abysmal 2021, Davies' FIP still sits at 5.51, showing he's actually been quite fortunate on balls put into play.

Davies was one of my favorite pitchers to fade in his lone year at Chicago, and it seems that even with slight improvement with the Diamondbacks, he's still not a trustworthy arm in the early portion of 2022.

Dodgers-Diamondbacks Pick

It's always scary to back an over when the Diamondbacks offense is involved, but that's where I'm headed in this National League West affair.

While Gonsolin has been effective in his three starts this season, he's due for negative regression. Stranding 94% of runners on base is unsustainable, and his xFIP is nearly four runs higher than his ERA.

It's only a matter of time before a team gets to the right-hander, and I think Arizona should be able to grind out walks and threaten in the early going. It's just a matter of conversion for the Snakes.

On the other side, the Dodgers offense shouldn't have too much of a problem with Davies. They've been much better against right-handed pitching (.780 OPS) and draw a favorable matchup against Davies.

I don't trust Davies or the Diamondbacks bullpen enough to fade Gonsolin on the moneyline or spread, but I do think Arizona can put up a fight behind the plate.

After a low-scoring series opener, back the bats to get going in this Tuesday night showdown.

Pick: Over 9 (-120 | Play to 9.5 at -110)