The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 26, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Dodgers are favored by -148 on the moneyline and priced at +115 to cover the run-line (-1.5). The Padres are +126 on the moneyline and -138 to cover the run-line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction
- Dodgers vs Padres Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-105, play to -115)
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -148 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -138 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +126 |
- Dodgers vs Padres moneyline: Dodgers -148, Padres +126
- Dodgers vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (-115o /-105u)
- Dodgers vs Padres spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+115), Padres +1.5 (-138)
Dodgers vs Padres Kalshi MLB Odds
Dodgers vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Roki Sasaki (RHP, LAD) | Stat | Walker Buehler (RHP, SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 4.76 / 4.33 | ERA / xERA | 3.96 / 4.38 |
| 4.81 / 3.95 | FIP / xFIP | 3.28 / 3.65 |
| 15.5 | K-BB% | 13.6 |
| 45.0 | GB% | 49.3 |
| .279 | BABIP | .321 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 100 |
Dodgers vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
With their mid-week sweep of what was a very hot Minnesota Twins side, the Dodgers have extended their divisional lead over the rival Padres to nine games entering this series. They hold an absurd run differential of +144, and have played to a mark of 26-15 on the road.
Roki Sasaki's 4.76 ERA across 68 innings has been a concern, and his underlying metrics have also been relatively mediocre, with a 4.33 xERA and 3.95 xFIP.
Like Padres SP Walker Buehler, Sasaki has started to elevate his play of late, as over his last 39 and 1/3 IP, he's posted a 3.89 ERA with a 3.24 xERA and 3.00 xFIP. He has struck out 28% of batters in that span and recorded a Pitching+ rating of 114.
The Los Angeles bullpen has recorded an xFIP of 3.83 over the last 30 days and ranks ninth in MLB with a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.4%. It also holds the fourth-best Pitching+ rating of 104 in that span and is in good shape following an off-day Thursday.
The Dodgers lineup has been extremely hard on righties this season, hitting to a wRC+ of 124 with a weighted on-base average of .352. They also hold a wRC+ of 143 over the last 30 days versus righties, and hold a hard-hit rate of 40.2% in that span.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Buehler enters this matchup with his former side in strong form, having pitched to an ERA of 2.72 across his last 36 and 1/3 innings (seven starts). He holds a 3.76 xERA and 3.38 xFIP in that span, and a Pitching+ rating of 102.
He has shown improved command relative to earlier in the season, as he's walked just 10 batters across the last seven starts, and four of those came in one outing.
San Diego's exceptional bullpen has remained in strong form of late, as over the last 30 days, its relievers have posted a 3.19 ERA and hold a Stuff+ rating of 105.
The Padres offense has continued to deliver concerning results of late, as over the last 30 days, they rank 26th in wRC+. They hold the second-lowest hard-hit rate and second-lowest line-drive rate, as well as a BB/K ratio of 0.39. They also hold a wRC+ of just 88 versus right-handed pitching this season.
Dodgers vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
There may not be too many bettors interested in betting the under, given the way the Dodgers' stacked lineup has been producing of late, but this matchup should feature quality pitching from start to finish and could be less high-event than is anticipated.
Sasaki has been in a quietly excellent run of play, with very strong underlying metrics to go alongside a sub-four ERA over a fairly large sample.
The Padres offense has been highly consistent this season, and he should have a good chance of recording a solid outing before a Dodgers bullpen that has, as expected, been much improved this season, enters the game.
Now finally fully healthy again, Buehler has also been in a solid stretch of play of late and is enjoying a minor career resurgence. It's certainly a little scary backing him to keep it going versus a stacked Dodgers lineup, but he is supported by one of the best bullpens in baseball.
At -105, I see value backing this exciting series opener to feature less than 7.5 runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-105, FanDuel | Play to -115)
