Dodgers vs Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Dodgers Set to Stay Red Hot (Monday, August 29)
Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Editor’s note: Today’s Dodgers vs. Marlins preview was published before L.A.’s Tony Gonsolin was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm strain.
We have the fourth and final game of this series with the NL East‘s Miami Marlins hosting the NL West‘s Los Angeles Dodgers. This contest is the seventh meeting between these two clubs this season, with the Dodgers winning five of the previous six matchups (83%).
Will Los Angeles continue its domination of the Marlins, or can Miami pull off the upset as a large home underdog?
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles enters this game amidst a dominating stretch of baseball. Over their last 26 contests, the Dodgers have won 21 games (81%). Of those 21 wins, 17 have been by at least a two-run margin (81%).
We should expect this trend to continue with right-hander Tony Gonsolin slated to take the mound for Los Angeles. Through 23 starts this season, Gonsolin is 16-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
While he has been dominant all season, Gonsolin enters this game in particularly great form. Over his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 0.76 ERA and 0.73 WHIP.
In his one career start against Miami, Gonsolin threw five scoreless frames while allowing just two hits. Based on his metrics this season, we should not expect any regression from Gonsolin as he boasts a .276 xwOBA, .218 xBA, and .341 xSLG.
Following Gonsolin is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, the Dodgers’ bullpen ranks second in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, first in BA, third in SLG, second in wOBA, and sixth in FIP.
Additionally, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the Dodgers are slated to go against right-hander Pablo Lopez. When facing right-handed pitchers, Los Angeles ranks first in the league in BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA since the beginning of July.
While the Dodgers enter this game in great form, it has been more difficult for the Marlins as they have lost 11 of their last 16 games (69%). Of those 11 losses, eight have been by at least a two-run margin (73%).
As mentioned above, right-hander Pablo Lopez is slated to take the mound for Miami. Through 25 starts this season, Lopez is 8-8 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
While those numbers are solid, Lopez has had some weaker outings recently. Over his last five starts, he is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.
Following Lopez is one of the weaker bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, the Marlins’ relief pitching ranks just 18th in the league in ERA, 26th in WHIP, 26th in BA, 26th in SLG, 26th in wOBA, and 20th in FIP.
This pitching staff may not get much run support as the Marlins are slated to go against right-hander Tony Gonsolin. When facing right-handed pitching, Miami ranks 25th in the league in BA, 28th in SLG, 28th in OPS, and 28th in wOBA.
We are just going to try to keep this one simple. In this game, Los Angeles boasts the better starting pitcher, bullpen, and lineup.
The trends all align with the Dodgers, and I do not see why this game would be any different. Most importantly, Gonsolin has been as close to a guaranteed win as you can get.
Los Angeles has won in 13 of Gonsolin’s last 14 starts (93%), with 11 of those 13 wins coming by at least a two-run margin (85%).
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) | Play up to (-135)
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