Dodgers vs Padres Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, August 7
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres, right, and Fernando Tatis Jr. #23.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres conclude their four-game set on Monday afternoon at Petco Park as the Dodgers look to win the series over their division rival.
L.A. is starting to build its lead in the NL West. Following their win on Sunday Night Baseball, the Dodgers have a four-game cushion over the Giants. They'll send Tony Gonsolin to the mound with hopes that he can improve after a rough July.
With one of the largest payrolls in baseball and only a 55-57 record to show for it, San Diego needs to make up ground in a hurry. The Padres are 10 games back in the NL West, but only three games back in the Wild Card race.
Seth Lugo takes the mound in a crucial game that may end up deciding whether the Padres make the playoffs. Here's my betting analysis of the MLB odds and Dodgers vs. Padres prediction for today.
Tony Gonsolin is a big-time negative regression candidate. His ERA sits at 4.11, but his xERA is much higher at 4.91. A lot of that overperformance is coming on his fastball as Gonsolin's xwOBA is over 100 points higher than his actual wOBA allowed.
It shows Gonsolin hasn't been the pitcher that he was over the past few seasons. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate are by far the highest of his career, and he's not inducing the swings and misses that he used to — his K/9 is below eight for the first time in his career. He had a good outing against Oakland in his last start, but in the two starts before, he gave up nine runs combined.
On offense, the Dodgers have been obliterating the baseball. Over the last 30 days, they lead the league in wOBA and wRC+; they have also scored a whopping 151 runs in their last 23 games. They crush right-handed pitching, so the matchup against Seth Lugo is a good one on paper.
The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been that great this season. They rank just 16th in xFIP, 13th in K-BB% and 22nd in LOB%, but they are top five in Stuff+ and Pitching+.
It's been a strange year for the Padres, and their underperformance can really be boiled down to their offensive production against right-handed pitching.
So far this season — with Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. in the lineup — San Diego has a .316 wOBA and 101 wRC+. However, over the past month, San Diego has been hitting the ball much better, with the fourth-best wOBA and third-best wRC+.
Like Gonsolin, Seth Lugo is a big negative regression candidate. His ERA is 3.54, but his xERA is 4.20. He has great command of all of his pitches (BB/9 below two), but beyond not issuing walks, his Statcast profile isn't that impressive.
As you can see above, his curveball has an insane amount of spin. He throws that pitch equally with his fastball, but it really hasn't been effective. It has a .268 xBA and .304 xwOBA, which is not what you'd expect from a pitch that boasts an elite spin rate.
His fastball is below average as well. It only averages 93.6 mph, has a Stuff+ rating of 85 and opposing hitters have a .334 xwOBA against it.
The Padres bullpen is below average. They rank 24th in Stuff+, 17th in Pitching+, 22nd in xFIP and 23rd in K-BB%.
Dodgers vs. Padres Betting Pick
This game has potential for a lot of runs.
Seth Lugo and Tony Gonsolin are both negative regression candidates with below-average xERAs while both bullpens are average to below average in a lot of key metrics.
The Dodgers are second in terms of run value against both fastballs and curveballs with a combined +60.1 run value against Lugo's two main pitches, while the Padres have a .355 xwOBA against Gonsolin's main pitches (fastball and splitter).
I have 9.64 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 9 runs at -110 (PointsBet).
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