Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Marlins, Two Other Games
Martin Prado and Brian Anderson. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
- Pro players went 1-1 with their Thursday plays.
- Friday is historically the the best day of the week for contrarian bettors.
- The Marlins, D-Backs and Padres are all receiving less than 35% of bets, but lines are moving in their favor.
Pro players split their two Thursday plays, cashing the Mariners-Angels Over but losing the Orioles moneyline. Now, it’s Friday, which has historically been the best day of the week to fade the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), average Joes are more likely to get down on games, specifically targeting favorites, home teams and overs. This leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 7:35 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
But first, here are a few betting terms you should know:
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.
Data as of 2:10 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (+114)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Phillies lead the Marlins by 14.5 games in the NL East. With Jake Arrieta (3.47 ERA) toeing the rubber, nearly 80% of bettors are going with Philly. However, sharps are buying low on Miami, which just won two of three against the Brewers. The Fish are getting only 22% of bets, but 42% of dollars and have moved from +129 to +114 since opening. Pros at SIA and Sportsbook got down hard on Miami +130 and +125, triggering reverse line movement in favor of the divisional home dog. The Marlins also match the profitable Betting Against the Public Bet Labs system (+174.82 units since 2005).
Arizona Diamondbacks (+116) at Atlanta Braves
7:35 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are buying low on the D-backs tonight. Arizona is getting only 31% bets but 39% of dollars, indicating the smart money is in their favor. Meanwhile, despite nearly 70% of bets coming down on Atlanta, the Braves have fallen from -129 to -126. Why would the books drop the ATL line to give out a better number to the public? Sharps have been hitting the D-backs, creating liability. Pros at Pinnacle steamed Arizona to +128, causing the line to fall toward the road dog. This is notable because Pinnacle is one the sharpest offshore books with the highest limits.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (+115)
10:10 p.m. ET
The public loves betting the Cubs. Tonight is no different. However, despite getting 78% of moneyline bets, Chicago has fallen from -129 to -124. This reverse line movement indicates sharp action on San Diego (which is even more notable considering it’s one of the most lopsided games of the night). The Padres are getting only 23% of bets, but 33% of dollars and have received a pair of steam and reverse line moves from 5Dimes and Sportsbook.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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