Martin Prado and Brian Anderson. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
- Pro players went 1-1 with their Thursday plays.
- Friday is historically the the best day of the week for contrarian bettors.
- The Marlins, D-Backs and Padres are all receiving less than 35% of bets, but lines are moving in their favor.
Pro players split their two Thursday plays, cashing the Mariners-Angels Over but losing the Orioles moneyline. Now, it’s Friday, which has historically been the best day of the week to fade the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), average Joes are more likely to get down on games, specifically targeting favorites, home teams and overs. This leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 7:35 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
But first, here are a few betting terms you should know:
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.
Data as of 2:10 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (+114)
7:10 p.m. ET