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Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Pick, Odds: Back the Better Arm in Afternoon Finale

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Pick, Odds: Back the Better Arm in Afternoon Finale article feature image
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Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried. (Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees on May 13, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.

The Yankees are favored by -173 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +142 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.

Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.


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Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

  • Yankees vs Orioles Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+105)

My Yankees vs Orioles best bet is on the Yankees to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.


Yankees vs Orioles Odds

Yankees Logo
Wednesday, May 13
1:05 p.m. ET
MASN
Orioles Logo
Yankees Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+105
9
100o / -121u
-173
Orioles Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-126
9
100o / -121u
+142
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
DraftKings Logo
  • Yankees vs Orioles moneyline: Yankees -173, Orioles +142
  • Yankees vs Orioles over/under: 9 (+100o / -121u)
  • Yankees vs Orioles spread: Yankees -1.5 (+105), Orioles +1.5 (-126)

Yankees vs Orioles Probable Pitchers

LHP Max Fried (NYY)StatRHP Kyle Bradish (BAL)
4-2W-L1-5
1.8fWAR (FanGraphs)0.5
2.91/2.41ERA / xERA4.83/4.31
2.73/3.87FIP / xFIP4.19/3.94
13.2%K-BB%12.4%
47.1%GB%49.6%
.234BABIP.366
106Stuff+101
102Location+97

Yankees vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview

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New York Yankees Betting Preview

After being arguably the hottest team in baseball, the Yankees' road trip got off to a rough start. They dropped the first four games, three of which they had a two-run lead in.

However, they snapped their four-game losing streak with a 6-2 win over the Orioles yesterday. Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham both homered while Will Warren delivered another quality outing and finished an out shy of an official quality start.

Aaron Judge and Ben Rice both found the hit column again and they continue to pace the offense. They both rank in the top 10 in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, RBI, and OPS. They are also among the league's leaders in hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, per StatCast.

Today's game was originally scheduled for the evening, but was moved up with inclement weather expected. Max Fried will get the ball for the Yankees and he will get the ball for his 10th start of the year.

Since joining the Yankees, Fried is 23-7 with a 2.87 ERA and 6.2 WAR in 41 regular season starts. He is also among the league's best in xBA, xERA, barrel rate, and hard hit percentage.

Fried and Cam Schlittler have anchored the Yankees' rotation this season, but reinforcements are on the way with Carlos Rodon debuting on Sunday and Gerrit Cole not far behind.

They have not been as lucky at the plate as Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Dominguez, and now Jose Caballero are on the injured list. The Yankees recalled Anthony Volpe to man shortstop in Caballero's absence.

Manager said he expects Caballero to be the starting shortstop again once healthy, though Volpe may find himself earning more playing time if Jazz Chisholm continues to struggle.

Chisholm's walk year has not gone according to plan after he predicted a 50/50 season for himself before the start of the season as he is hitting just .200 with four home runs, 14 RBI, and a .600. He was given an off day yesterday for a mental break, but he is expected back in the lineup this afternoon.

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Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Last night, Trevor Rogers returned to the Orioles' rotation, which was welcome news after he posted a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season. However, he has yet to regain last season's form and allowed six runs in four innings. Rogers now has a 5.77 ERA this season and the Orioles' starting pitchers are 29th in the MLB with a 5.19 ERA.

The Orioles felt good entering this season with Rogers and Kyle Bradish atop their rotation. Bradish will get the ball today, but he has yet to find his All-MLB form or even last season when he had a 2.53 ERA in 32 innings.

Thus far, walks have been an issue for him as he has 22 in 41 innings, ranking in the 21st percentile in walk rate and leading to a 1.66 WHIP. He walked four while allowing six hits and five runs in four innings in a 9-4 loss to the Yankees 11 days.

The Orioles have dropped five of the first six meetings to the Yankees this season and are home underdogs again today. Though they are eight back of the Yankees and 10 games back of the Rays for first place, the playoffs remain well within reach at this stage of the season.

The Orioles are just 1.5 games back of the Mariners and White Sox for the second and third AL Wild Card spots.

They will, however, need more production from their star bats. Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso lead the team with nine and eight home runs, respectively, but they both have a sub .730 OPS.

Henderson is just 2-for-21 against the Yankees this season, but he is 2-for-5 lifetime against Fried. Alonso has two home runs against him in 45 at-bats, dating back to their time in the NL East with the Braves and Mets.

The good news for the O's is Adley Rutschman is having a resurgent season behind the plate while sharing time with young star Samuel Basallo. Rutschman has five home runs, 21 RBI, and a .873 OPS while leading the team with 1.2 WAR.


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Yankees vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis

Since the start of last season, the Yankees are 14-5 against the Orioles. They have won 13 of those games by two runs or more and they are plus odds on the runline today.

Winning today's game by two or more will also be in the Yankees' best interest. They are just 3-9 in one-run games this season, but 24-7 when winning by two runs or more.

Today's game being moved up may also play to the Yankees' advantage as they are 10-7 in day games this season while Baltimore is just 9-13 thus far. Both teams just saw the opponent's starting pitcher recently, but if Bradish continues to struggle, that advantage goes to the Yankees as well.

Fried has a 3.52 ERA in six career starts against the Orioles and he has won two of three starts against them as a Yankee. If the Yankees get to Bradish again, they should win this game by two or more with Fried on the mound.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+105)


Yankees vs Orioles Weather


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